Will someone other than Joe Biden win at least one state in the 2024 Democratic Primary?
240
1.3K
1.8K
Aug 14
9%
chance

Resolves YES if a candidate besides Joe Biden gets a plurality of votes in at least one State's Democratic Primary (or the relevant equivalent for the various Democratic Caucuses)

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

@twink_joan_didion And he pissed off the entire state political apparatus by trying to put South Carolina in the poll position among state primaries (pun fully intended). He probably can't win NH now that it will require a write-in campaign.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@twink_joan_didion And he won the state anyway

Title says "state", but rules say "primary or caucus". Which one is true?

predicts NO

@MaybeNotDepends Shucks, this is a good question! Kinda forgot that non-states have primaries. Thanks for pointing this out ahead of time!

I'm going to change the description to match the title, since that seems like the more natural interpretation of this question given the title. If anyone was betting because of places like Samoa or Guam, say something and I’ll try to somehow reimburse ya!

Edit: Also, if someone has a strong opinion that this was the wrong choice, ya can state yer case and I’ll hear you out, but I’ll be quite hesitant to change again

bought Ṁ1 of YES

New Hampshire counts, right? Even in the event that Biden's name isn't on the ballot for some weird technicality reason?

predicts NO

@twink_joan_didion Yup. New Hampshire definitely counts.

See also:

bought Ṁ40 of NO

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