At the end of 2023 (some time on December 31st PST), in a Safari incognito window, I will search 'manifold' (no quotes). If a Manifold Markets link is one of the first 10 links (not including links marked as sponsored) in the main-search result section, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO.
Currently manifold.markets is the 38th link when searched.
What counts as a main-search result?
I think this is best illustrated with a jankily drawn diagram! If after seeing this diagram, confusion remains, ask a question in the comments!
If Google substantially changes in such a way that the resolution criteria no longer make sense, I will resolve to the best of my ability based on the spirit of the market (feel free to ask hypotheticals to better understand what that would mean).
Due to the possibility of a subjective resolution, I will not purchase any shares in this market.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ264 | |
| 2 | Ṁ221 | |
| 3 | Ṁ206 | |
| 4 | Ṁ97 | |
| 5 | Ṁ42 |
@BenjaminShindel 10th for me, non-incognito, never use google, not on a chromium browser
(compare: not in the top 100 on duckduckgo)
@Stralor I was in private browsing Safari. The search results for me are identical in private browsing Chrome (Manifold is now 7th)
As of today, it was 4th, so I reckoned it’d be good to have a higher goal for search position: /JoshuaB/will-manifold-markets-be-in-the-top-0944158a91e7 . Also, if you’re really pessimistic there was this top 25 market I made a while back /JoshuaB/will-manifold-markets-be-in-the-top-3e23ab719d50.
(I’m presuming the hike in traders is due to the NYT mention?)
Created a post which I’ll update sporadically for what rank this site is under these market rules! https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-search-position-over-time. Currently it is 114th!
@Conflux Great question! I reckon not, since I don’t want traders to be worried about someone else buying an ad slot for Manifold last minute. I’ll edit that into the description.