What percentage of the vote will the third most popular candidate get in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Basic
9
Ṁ1992
Dec 2
0.4%
<=0.1%
96%
<=1% and >0.1%
1.7%
<=2% and >1%
1.2%
<=5% and >2%
0.6%
<=10% and >5%
0.4%
>10%

Resolves based on the percentage of the popular vote that the candidate with the third highest number of votes gets.

Base-rates (collated by @LBeesley in description here /LBeesley/will-a-third-party-candidate-receiv ):

2020 - Jo Jorgensen (0 Electoral Votes, 1.87m Popular Votes, cc 1.12%)

2016 - Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 4.49m Popular Votes, cc 3.28%)

2012 - Gary "Before What Is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 1.28m Popular Votes, cc 0.99%)

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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sold Ṁ48 <=1% and >0.1% NO

Seems like it’ll prolly be between 0.1 and 1, dunno how long to wait to resolve, but it’d certainly be imprudent to resolve now

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