What percentage of the vote will the third most popular candidate get in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Basic
9
Ṁ1992Dec 2
0.4%
<=0.1%
96%
<=1% and >0.1%
1.7%
<=2% and >1%
1.2%
<=5% and >2%
0.6%
<=10% and >5%
0.4%
>10%
Resolves based on the percentage of the popular vote that the candidate with the third highest number of votes gets.
Base-rates (collated by @LBeesley in description here /LBeesley/will-a-third-party-candidate-receiv ):
2020 - Jo Jorgensen (0 Electoral Votes, 1.87m Popular Votes, cc 1.12%)
2016 - Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 4.49m Popular Votes, cc 3.28%)
2012 - Gary "Before What Is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 1.28m Popular Votes, cc 0.99%)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024?
11% chance
What will be the popular vote margin between the top two candidates in the 2024 US presidential election?
What percent of the popular vote will third party candidates get in the 2024 election?
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
What political party or affiliation will come in third place in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Who will get third place in the 2024 POTUS general election?
What percentage of the pop. vote will each candidate receive in the 2024 US Presidential Election? [3350 in subsidies]
Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
1% chance
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
14% chance
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 3%?
1% chance