What percentage of the vote will the third most popular candidate get in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Basic
10
Ṁ3199resolved Dec 2
100%99.0%
<=1% and >0.1%
0.1%
<=0.1%
0.3%
<=2% and >1%
0.3%
<=5% and >2%
0.1%
<=10% and >5%
0.1%
>10%
Resolves based on the percentage of the popular vote that the candidate with the third highest number of votes gets.
Base-rates (collated by @LBeesley in description here /LBeesley/will-a-third-party-candidate-receiv ):
2020 - Jo Jorgensen (0 Electoral Votes, 1.87m Popular Votes, cc 1.12%)
2016 - Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 4.49m Popular Votes, cc 3.28%)
2012 - Gary "Before What Is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 1.28m Popular Votes, cc 0.99%)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
2% chance
How much of the popular vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
Will third-party candidates receive 5% or more of the presidential vote in 2024?
1% chance
Who will get third place in the 2024 POTUS general election?
Will a single independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election?
1% chance
What percentage of the popular vote will each 2024 Presidential candidate receive?
What percentage of the vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election will the Libertarian Party candidate win?
Will third party candidates account for more than 5.0% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
7% chance