What percentage of the vote will the third most popular candidate get in the 2024 Presidential Election?
390
Dec 2
2%
<=0.1%
7%
<=1% and >0.1%
29%
<=2% and >1%
45%
<=5% and >2%
11%
<=10% and >5%
6%
>10%

Resolves based on the percentage of the popular vote that the candidate with the third highest number of votes gets.

Base-rates (collated by @LBeesley in description here /LBeesley/will-a-third-party-candidate-receiv ):

2020 - Jo Jorgensen (0 Electoral Votes, 1.87m Popular Votes, cc 1.12%)

2016 - Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 4.49m Popular Votes, cc 3.28%)

2012 - Gary "Before What Is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 1.28m Popular Votes, cc 0.99%)

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