What percentage of the vote will the third most popular candidate get in the 2024 Presidential Election?
5
84
Ṁ627Ṁ390
Dec 2
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2%
<=0.1%
7%
<=1% and >0.1%
29%
<=2% and >1%
45%
<=5% and >2%
11%
<=10% and >5%
6%
>10%
Resolves based on the percentage of the popular vote that the candidate with the third highest number of votes gets.
Base-rates (collated by @LBeesley in description here /LBeesley/will-a-third-party-candidate-receiv ):
2020 - Jo Jorgensen (0 Electoral Votes, 1.87m Popular Votes, cc 1.12%)
2016 - Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 4.49m Popular Votes, cc 3.28%)
2012 - Gary "Before What Is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 1.28m Popular Votes, cc 0.99%)
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
73% chance
How much of the popular vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 2%?
52% chance
How much of the popular vote will Joe Biden win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
Will third party candidates account for more than 5.0% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
34% chance
What percentage of the vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election will the Libertarian Party candidate win?
1.38
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 3%?
50% chance
If the 2024 Presidential Election is Biden/Trump what percentage of the vote will the most popular other candidate get?
Will a third party get more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elections?
32% chance
What political party or affiliation will come in third place in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?