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MANIFOLD
In 2 weeks will I believe it’s more likely than not that Tim Walz made false statements about his military career?
22
Ṁ1kṀ6.9k
resolved Aug 23
Resolved
YES

I’ve seen that Stolen Valor claims have been making the rounds, but also people have made counterpoints to them. I’d say that I’m at like 70% Walz has been honest, even though I haven’t really looked into it, since my prior is that conservatives have a history of lying/misleading about their political opponents.

Anyways, that leaves me open to be convinced that the fraud is real, but the burden is definitely on folks who think it is. Resolves YES in 2 weeks if I believe that Walz more likely than not has made false statements about his military career. Otherwise, resolves NO.

I suspect that this should be clear cut (won’t be super close to the border of 50% certainty), so I hope the probability tracks with the chance that the claims are true.

I will not bet in this market.

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I’m woefully out of my depth for military stuff lol. It sounds like he said “I’m retired Sergeant major”. I do note the lack of article, which doesn’t really change my interpretation, but it’s odd. I probably agree that this is not a substantial lie.

I’m leaning towards (say 60% certain, since I’m out of my depth) this being a false statement though, based on what has been conveyed. My assumption is that it’s standard to say your permanent rank, rather than your highest rank, which means that this statement is false?

I won’t resolve this before the end of 2 weeks regardless. (I’ve realized that description and title are both plural, but I think this clip makes it more likely than not he’s repeated this claim)

While it’s not the main criticism conservatives have been lodging against Walz and his military, I’m resolving YES, since I think it’s more likely than not when he said “I’m retired sergeant major” he was saying something factually untrue

Well today’s the last day to convince me that “I’m retired sergeant major” was *not a false statement by Walz!

One week in, and I continue to believe comments like “I’m retired sergeant major” more likely than not count as false statements

bought Ṁ750 YES

also:

“Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz ‘misspoke’ in a 2018 video circulated by the Harris campaign earlier this week that included the vice presidential candidate talking about his handling of weapons ‘in war,’ a campaign spokesperson said Friday.”

While perhaps somewhat misleading, I still don’t believe this was a false statement

This only resolves yes if he's told an outright lie, very misleading statements don't count?

Correct (it seems/seemed easier to adjudicate ~objectively whether someone has lied than whether they’ve heavily mislead)

Claims I can find:

One is that he claims to have been a command seargeant major, and he technically was that but he retired early so lost the rank, and so claiming to be one now is dishonest. This doesn't seem important

The other one is

In a video clip tweeted out by the Harris campaign on Tuesday, Walz tells an audience that he carried guns "in war” while trying to make the case for restrictions on gun access.

"We can research the impacts of gun violence. We can make sure those weapons of war, that I carried in war, are only carried in war,” Walz said.

Walz would have carried a gun during his service when the U.S. was at war following the 9/11 terror attacks, including a deployment to Italy in 2003 in support of Operation Enduring Freedom.

But there is no evidence that Walz was ever engaged in active combat, and he has acknowledged as much, according to a 2018 interview with Minnesota Public Radio.

Still, Vance insists Walz's comment about carrying a gun "in war” and not "during war” is tantamount to stolen valor.

This one is closer, it's sort of technically true but sort of misleading

Claim 1: If I understand correctly, if he’s ever claimed (after leaving the service) that he is a CSM, then that would be false, but claiming he was is true.

Claim 2: I think that carried in war is probably an accurate shorthand for what he did, since it’s passive. Assuming this portrayal is accurate (and I’m actually understanding it :-P), then this would most likely not count

he has claimed to be a 'retired sergeant major' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK8oWASzh9s&t=25s, which by this logic he isn't, although it still feels like it's not a substantial lie on his part to me idk up to u

I’m woefully out of my depth for military stuff lol. It sounds like he said “I’m retired Sergeant major”. I do note the lack of article, which doesn’t really change my interpretation, but it’s odd. I probably agree that this is not a substantial lie.

I’m leaning towards (say 60% certain, since I’m out of my depth) this being a false statement though, based on what has been conveyed. My assumption is that it’s standard to say your permanent rank, rather than your highest rank, which means that this statement is false?

I won’t resolve this before the end of 2 weeks regardless. (I’ve realized that description and title are both plural, but I think this clip makes it more likely than not he’s repeated this claim)

bought Ṁ100 NO

I think he draws retirement benefits as one rank, but retired at another rank. So this may be more subtle than you think.

I think the thing is he was provisionally that, and keeping the rank was conditional on staying with it for some period of time and he retired before that

Wait, Wikipedia is claiming “the downgrade of one rank was effective from the day before his military retirement” meaning the demotion from Sergeant Major to Master Sergeant happened before he retired, which means he retired as a Master Sergeant?? The bit before this was modified by “for retirement benefit purposes”, which might mean he wasn’t actually demoted?

If he was actually demoted, then saying “I’m retired sergeant major” would be even less true, since he retired as a master sergeant.

This is assuming that my understanding of the military is accurate and so is my reading comprehension which seem like big asks… I still believe the statement Walz made was false.

bought Ṁ100 YES

It seems like most politicans make false statements at some point. I'd probably too if I was a professional public speaker