FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino promised Thursday to release new video that finally debunks conspiracy theories that sex predator Jeffrey Epstein could have been murdered — insisting “no one was there but him” at the time of his jail cell suicide.
“There’s video clear as day,” Bongino told Fox News’ “Fox & Friends” early Thursday.
“He’s the only person in there and the only person coming out. You can see it.”
Bongino, a former conservative talk radio host, stressed the footage didn’t show “the actual act” but would prove there was no one around his cell before he was found dead at Manhattan’s Metropolitan Correctional Center in 2019.
“There is video and when you look at the video, and we will release it, we’re working on cleaning it up to make sure you have an enhanced – and we will give the original so you don’t think there are any shenanigans – you will see no one in there but him. There’s just nobody there,” Bongino said.
If a video as described in this interview is released before 2026 (Eastern Time), resolves Yes. Otherwise, resolves No.
Update 2025-07-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced their intention to resolve the market to Yes. Please see their comment for more details.
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Okay so thought about this more given the uproar, here's my conclusions:
I apologize for not originally titling this "FBI releases the video they claim helps proves Epstein killed himself". This is what I meant by "video as described" which I thought was clear, but apparently was not.
I am still very inside-view convinced that this resolves yes, but from an outside view it's a bad look I bet on my own market because I thought it was objective and obvious. This is like 1% of my total profit so it's really not that much bias to me, but again it's a bad look.
At this point, with me thinking I won the bet and many of you thinking you won the bet, my general philosophy as a mod is that I am extremely trigger happy with N/A resolutions. I basically tell the other mods to do N/A anytime something is in a grey area, as it's not worth anyone's time to spend hours adjudicating a couple hundred bucks of play money.
I am therefore doing that, with my apologies to my fellow yes holders who I continue to think were correct.
@Joshua Well, this is even more disappointing. There is nothing about the description as written, nor the market title, nor the underlying facts that are ambiguous here. Personally I would argue spirit of the market too-- there is far more interest in the question "Will the FBI release video evidence Epstein killed himself?" than there is "Will the FBI release some video related to the Epstein case?" You were overly hasty, made an incorrect resolution, and in the face of that, instead of even bothering to argue otherwise, just say, "Well actually I'm still right but I guess this looks bad so I'll just null everything."
If you actually think this is a YES then stick to YES. Worrying about appearances is worse than being wrong. c.f. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-prophet-and-caesars-wife
Of course that would lead to meta discussion about the way resolution disputes work on this site, but perhaps that is needed. We could have had price discovery on this much faster if there was confidence in that process. I would have bet against your news trading if you weren't the market creator.
@Joshua You should still unresolve this. The market was originally until the end of the year, and the FBI or some other entity may yet release something which matches Bongino's description.
Obviously the gap alone means that the current answer is NO, and your retroactive textual analysis shouldn't change this.
@JasonQ The title, description, and criterion are all fine, though. Only the creator incentives are borked.
@CraigDemel yeah that’s fair but why stick with said creator if so? Personally I prefer markets where the creator promises not to bet because of situations like this where they can either: 1) place huge bets right at the end based on internal knowledge of which way they’ll resolve then resolve it quickly, 2) resolve according to their bias based on betting, or 3) N/A to avoid taking a loss when it seems like the facts are going against them. We saw all three here unfortunately so I’m not sure why the community would stick with this market.
@JasonQ In general yes. But since OP posts many questions and perhaps values his reputation, I am suggesting the correct course of action.
Footage is missing, op resolved in own favour
https://www.reddit.com/r/law/comments/1lu8lj1/epstein_cctv_footage_missing_one_minute/
@Lorelai this is somewhat less important than the fact the video doesn't actually match the given description (“He’s the only person in there and the only person coming out. You can see it.”) simply because you can't actually see that since Epstein's cell door (or the path to it) is not in the frame.
If @Joshua argued in good faith, he would've acknowledged it already or at least engaged with the substance of critics' arguments. I expected better from a Manifold moderator. Not a good look at all.
@Bair Bongino, a former conservative talk radio host, stressed the footage didn’t show “the actual act” but would prove there was no one around his cell before he was found dead at Manhattan’s Metropolitan Correctional Center in 2019.
This is disappointing. I bet NO specifically expecting this outcome: a video released which shows some things but not exactly what was described. The wording in the description seems clear. It's not "the video referred to (and potentially embellished) in this interview" but "a video as described in this interview."
Will @Joshua unresolve this market?
https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-joshua-unresolve-his-epstein-e
I respectfully disagree with this resolution. The market requires 'a video as described in this interview' to be released.
Bongino promised video showing 'He's the only person in there and the only person coming out' - clearly describing footage of the cell itself or at least its door. The released video fundamentally differs:
1. None of the visible doors are Epstein's cell door. This is guards' desk footage, not cell footage.
2. Epstein appears only once - at 7:49 pm walking past with a guard. Bongino claimed you could see him going in his cell and coming out, but we see neither.
3. His body removal isn't shown. Between 6:30 am (discovery) and 6:39 am (pronounced dead at hospital), his body was transported out. Since this isn't visible in the footage, there must be at least one other path to his cell that this camera doesn't cover.
4. There's a 1 minute gap in the footage (11:58:59 pm -12:00:00 am). Even if this is a normal system behavior, someone aware of it could exploit this blind spot.
The video cannot verify who entered/exited Epstein's cell or prove 'no one in there but him' because it doesn't show the cell entrance at all. It shows a different area entirely.
The market should remain unresolved until video matching Bongino's description - footage actually showing the cell door and who goes in/out - is released.
Released footage: https://www.justice.gov/video-files/video1.mp4
@Bair Here are some more problems pointed out, including insufficient camera coverage and Epstein being out of his cell when he was supposedly locked down: https://x.com/adamscochran/status/1942113153245942233?t=MMlWXhPHkN9sLtwdyKoUhA&s=19
@Joshua, you should really consider unresolving.
How about instead of cryptotwitter threads we refer to actual journalism?
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5388170-epstein-deathsuicide-investigation-doj/
The Department of Justice (DOJ) released surveillance footage Monday to back up its determination that disgraced financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein killed himself in a New York City prison in 2019.
The nearly 11-hour video was filmed outside Epstein’s prison cell during the final hours of his life while he was awaiting trial on additional federal sex trafficking charges.
Conspiracy theories have lingered about the cause of Epstein’s death since his lifeless body was found in the Special Housing Unit (SHU) cell where he was being held. Epstein, a wealthy New York socialite who owned his own jet and private island, frequently hobnobbed with celebrities and the political elite, including President Trump and former President Clinton.
The footage the DOJ released this week covers the area outside of Epstein’s cell — not what happened inside — but no one is seen entering or exiting.
“As DOJ’s Inspector General explained in 2023, anyone entering or attempting to enter the tier where Epstein’s cell was located from the SHU common area would have been captured by this footage,” the DOJ’s memo states. “The FBI’s independent review of this footage confirmed that from the time Epstein was locked in his cell at around 10:40 pm on August 9, 2019, until around 6:30 am the next morning, nobody entered any of the tiers in the SHU.”
More than sufficient match for what was promised for the resolution criteria, although I do love the midnight glitch giving just enough hope for the conspiracies to continue.
CNN too: https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/07/politics/jeffrey-epstein-suicide-client-list-justice
The department has also released 10 hours of jailhouse security footage that shows no one entered Epstein’s jail cell on the day he died by suicide.
@Joshua you can't be serious. Can you actually respond to the arguments being made instead of citing mass media?
"no one is seen entering or exiting"
1. you can't see the door of his cell
2. many people walk past the guard's station
"that shows no one entered Epstein’s jail cell on the day he died by suicide."
This position is completely undefendable, you can believe in it only if you haven't watched the video. Just watch it.
@Joshua The resolution criteria require the released video to match what Bongino described: footage where you can see who goes in and out of the cell. This video simply doesn't show that, regardless of what the DOJ claims it proves (and what the media repeats).
If you think the video actually shows that, please provide timestamps where we can see Epstein entering his cell and where we can see his body taken out of the cell.
@Joshua The threads are referring to the actual video, and you can confirm what they are saying by looking at the video yourself.
The articles you're linking, on the other hand, are only reporting assertions from the DoJ. They don't mention the missing minute, so they appear not to have looked at the video at all. This therefore can't count as "video evidence".
Edit: The Hill now mentions the gap. I'm not sure whether they updated or both Joshua and I missed it at first.
@Joshua Note that the Hill article never actually endorses the claim that the video shows that nobody enters the cell. One of the virtues of mainstream journalism is that they tend to be careful with their words.
They report that the FBI interpret it this way, and also discuss critics of the evidence including the time gap. They report that noone enters or exits the area covered by the video, but do not extent the claim that noone enters or exits Epstein's cell.
If The Hill interpreted the video as proof that Epstein killed himself, they would have said that, instead of saying that the FBI interpreted the video that way.
Your criteria was:
If a video as described in this interview is released before 2026 (Eastern Time), resolves Yes. Otherwise, resolves No.
This is clearly the video he was referring to in the interview. But it's not the video as described in that interview. Bongino misrepresented the contents, as many people expected... and predicted.
“He’s the only person in there and the only person coming out. You can see it.”
You cannot, in fact, see that. Therefore, not as described.
@Bair Ironically, I was leaning more towards his death being a suicide before this "evidence" was released.