This is my version of /MarkIngraham/manifold-markets-financial-crisis ‌, a market that is often linked to but which has an inactive creator and unnecessarily narrow resolution criteria.

A time period resolves yes if a Manifold Financial Crisis occurs during that time. Multiple time periods can resolve yes.

This market resolves based on the spirit of the question in my judgement. I would generally expect to see many accounts going negative and staff intervening in a manifold financial crisis, but those criteria are neither necessary nor sufficient. I am open to suggestions of how to define a crisis more formally.

Things that would not count:

• A couple of accounts going very negative from new year's eve resolutions going against them, but most of the active users of the site coming out of it fine.

• Heavy losses to many users after the election, but which are an expected part of making large bets on a binary outcome.

• A temporary bug that looks like it will cause a financial crisis but is quickly fixed.

• Every Whalebait market except Whales vs Minnows.

Things that would count:

• An event like the the the Post-Person-Of-The-Year loan crisis, in which a bug was discovered that meant many users owed tens of thousands of mana in loans that they didn't realize had not been repaid. Many active users then went negative after the loans were paid back all at once, and staff had to step in and give out a bunch of extra loans to bring people positive.

• A market or series of markets resolve in an extremely unexpected way, such as LK-99 being a room temperature superconductor, and many accounts are completely wiped out. This would count regardless of if staff steps in or not.

• A massive bug that causes permanent economic damage which staff can't reverse.

• Whales vs Minnows.

I will not trade in this market.