One such possible map, in which dems just barely win:

If the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election has 277 or fewer electoral votes, this question resolves yes.

In a typical election with only two candidates winning EVs, this means the outcome is within eight electoral votes(inclusive) of a 269-269 tie. For example if you take the above map and you flip Nevada to blue you get 276-262, or if you flip New Hampshire to red you get 266-272. Either of those would count.

If any candidate gets 278 or more electoral votes, this market resolves No.

Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting of which candidate won each state, after any relevant recounts. Resolution does not count any shenanigans in the election certification process or potential insurrections.