Previously: /AlyssaVance/will-bytedance-soon-release-an-open

On December 6th, 2023, the day Google's Gemini was announced, Quanquan Gu (Director at ByteDance Research) said:

"Uncertain about GPT-5, but a super-strong model (more powerful than Gemini) is expected to arrive anytime now."

"Open source?"

"Open model weights."

https://twitter.com/QuanquanGu/status/1732484036160012798

Resolves YES if this happens unambiguously before July. Comparison will be between the strongest publicly available version of any new Bytedance model with open weights and the strongest publicly available version of Gemini Ultra at the time of that Bytedance model's release.

If there is no such ByteDance model, this resolves NO by default.

I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased. Let me know if you have any suggestions for any updates to the specific resolution criteria within the spirit of the market.