On December 6th, 2023, the day Google's Gemini was announced, Quanquan Gu (Director at ByteDance Research) said:
"Uncertain about GPT-5, but a super-strong model (more powerful than Gemini) is expected to arrive anytime now."
"Open source?"
"Open model weights."
https://twitter.com/QuanquanGu/status/1732484036160012798
On the day this model is released, I (Alyssa) will run a Twitter poll asking if the new ByteDance model is more powerful than Google's Gemini Ultra (options Yes/No/Results). This question resolves YES if more people respond Yes than No, otherwise it resolves NO.
If no LLM with open weights is released by ByteDance within three months (by March 7th, 2024), the question resolves NO. If fewer than 50 people answer the poll either Yes or No, the question resolves NO.
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@jacksonpolack @Nikos Argh - thanks for the explanation and sending the mana back. I thought I was benefiting from a bug when I kept betting so I guess no one to blame but myself 🤷♂️
@jacksonpolack Thank you for compensating people who ran into this. I don't suppose you might be able to do the same for me? I had M350 bet on NO-on-NO.
EDIT: Thank you! Much appreciated.
@Nikos on point #2 – I think there can be some legitimate arguments for a company to open source their own model. One is if you can't guarantee that the techniques to build the model can't be outdone by others, it could be worth having your model open simply to have the community find ways to improve it. Really simplifying the argument here, but it's similar to the reasons for companies open sourcing their own code.
And a bit of plug, but in case you're interested, here's a market I just made about whether any "big tech" companies will open source their own (foundation) model/LLM in 2024: https://manifold.markets/VictorsOtherVector/which-if-any-big-tech-companies-wil
EDIT: Fixed some basic grammatical typos for clarity. (I'm bad at using a mobile keyboard, especially when I'm tired.)
@Nikos I agree that this should be at 1/1000 or less by a reasonable interpretation:
I don't think there's more than a 1% chance that ByteDance will somehow be better than Anthropic, Facebook, AND google at LLMs
If they are, I don't think there'd be more than a 10% chance they'd desire to release the weights (maybe also less than 1%? seems like a slightly insane thing to do).
Even if all of the above is true, I'd bet there's less than a 10% chance that CCP would allow it to be released.
Even if all that is true, March 7th is an aggressive timeline
Furthermore, the resolution criteria is relatively favorable towards Gemini ultra. It doesn't matter if it hasn't been released and default is NO if fewer than 50 people respond.
Nevertheless, there's a lot of mana keeping this at 15%. My best guess is that maybe there's a hope that the twitter poll can be gamed?
I wonder to what degree the probability of this was adversely affected by the bonkers market structure here, being a market for YES and a market for NO where you have to by YES on the NO market (or NO on the YES market) to actually express "NO".
Frankly, I really wish the market creator would N/A this market and make one that uses a normal market.
@josh I don't think the market structure is to blame as much as the fact that there's one guy who owns the majority of YES and keeps buying it up
@dominic Yeah, the structure is insane but no point in fixing it now and I doubt it is impacting the price much.