On December 6th, 2023, the day Google's Gemini was announced, Quanquan Gu (Director at ByteDance Research) said:

"Uncertain about GPT-5, but a super-strong model (more powerful than Gemini) is expected to arrive anytime now."

"Open source?"

"Open model weights."

https://twitter.com/QuanquanGu/status/1732484036160012798

On the day this model is released, I (Alyssa) will run a Twitter poll asking if the new ByteDance model is more powerful than Google's Gemini Ultra (options Yes/No/Results). This question resolves YES if more people respond Yes than No, otherwise it resolves NO.

If no LLM with open weights is released by ByteDance within three months (by March 7th, 2024), the question resolves NO. If fewer than 50 people answer the poll either Yes or No, the question resolves NO.