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Coming up on the end of the month here! Perfect time for volatility predictions:

Oops I put Nanjing University twice, ignore mine and use School of Physics, Nanjing University @Joshua

This is interesting since it is very likely that the winning answer is not any of these first few answers given

so it's profitable to guess NO on everything (especially No replication by September, since the chances are ~20% based on https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-we-know-whether-the-room)

When will we know whether the room temp superconductor is real? (with >95% confidence)

Resolves to the earliest date when the price graph of https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real remains either below 5% or above 95% for a continuous 1 week period. The resolution is to the start of that 1 week period. Resolution notes: This question will use the date in Ea…

@ii If LK-99 is not shown to be a superconductor by anyone else, then "No replication by September" would trigger, explaining its high probability. I agree that the chance of "Other" is vastly underestimated here (there are likely many groups currently working on it silently).

@shaggishaggi

This is unlikely to matter, but for the record I think entries should be more specific than this.

@Joshua I see your point and understand where you come from but Elon is usually using the best resources he knows of when trying to do things fast, sometimes even has multiple teams do the same thing and compete with one another. It will just be a guess to make a bet on a specific team from his portfolio and would also clutter the voting options. But for the record. I think Tesla research team with SpaceX material science team is a valid option if the superconductor is real.

@shaggishaggi What you think personally of Musk is irrelevant, this is not a "person or group".

Ok, now everyone be honest!

It seems like the “other” option would never pay out, since when news broke of a team replicating, someone would add their name to the market. Do I misunderstand?

@HastingsGreer yep! when new answers get added, you gain shares for/against them equal to your Other shares

@HastingsGreer the other option just grants you shares in new answers; I don't think it pays out itself.

So if you think an answer not on the list will pay out, buy "Other" for now.

Yeah I'm not going to suddenly resolve this with no warning, I'm sure there will be plenty of discussion in the comments and someone will add all plausible options.

How suspicious are you/how do you define convincingly?

The maximally convincing hypothetical case would be that someone announces replication, everyone reputable on twitter says they're convinced, it's posted to the comments and all these markets and those on metaculus and polymarket suddenly shoot up and resolve yes, lots of mainstream news articles report it as a replication, and it's added to the wikipedia page as the first replication.

None of those individual examples are necessary on their own, but that's the kind of things I'll be looking for.

@Joshua For clarification, does a convincing replication showing that LK-99 is not a superconductor also count?

@Joshua Also I think the most likely case is that there are multiple replications within a short time span of each other, and none of them are entirely convincing on their own, but all of them together are convincing.

No, maybe that's me using the word wrong though? My intention is that this resolved to the first group to prove that it is a superconductor, or else to "no replication"

If it really is indistinguishably close I could resolve to a percentage, but I think I would try very hard to discern who was first if they were all good professional replications.

@Joshua no you're using the term correctly, it would not "replicate" if they found it to be not a superconductor

For reference on the "@iris_IGB on Twitter/X" option:

- https://twitter.com/iris_IGB

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-be-the-first-person-or-gro-0c0bf5d5374e?r=Sm9zaHVh

Who will be the first person or group to convincingly replicate the LK-99 Superconductivity in 2023?

Same as this market, but for those who think that convincing replication will take longer: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Joshua/who-will-be-the-first-person-or-gro)I will resolve this market early if there is a definitive consensus that there will be no convincing replication. I will not trade…

And here's a version for the end of the year, for those of you who think it will take longer.

The submit button seems to be returning an error?

{
    "message": "Only the creator or an admin can create an answer"
}

Similar error for me!

@LoganTurner Ooh, let me fix this...

@JamesGrugett Thanks, it worked!

@LoganTurner Yup! Thanks for trying it out