Who will be most likely to win the US Presidential Election, according to the main 538 Forecast when it first launches?
Basic
71
18k
resolved Jun 11
100%98.3%
Joe Biden
1.6%
Donald Trump
0.0%
Kamala Harris
0.0%
Nikki Haley
0.0%
Gavin Newsom
0.0%
Ron Desantis
0.0%
RFK Jr.
0.0%
Jeb!
0.0%Other

When the 538 first launches its flagship model for predicting the the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election, this market resolves to the name of the person the model currently projects to be the most likely to win.

If 538 has multiple models, this resolves based on whichever model they present as the "main" model. In 2020 there was only one version of the model, but in 2016 there was "poll-plus", "polls-only", and "now-cast". Polls-only was the "main model", in that case.

If there is no such model in 2024, this resolves to "other". The model launched on Jun 29th in 2016, and August 12th in 2020. But perhaps it will be earlier this year, given that we likely know who the candidates are already.

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I don't follow election twitter anymore. What's the latest on whether there will be a 538 model or who else has a good model live?

  • Fundamentals (economy, incumbent) slightly favor Biden due to low unemployment, ok GDP growth and incumbent advantage. Maybe inflation and approval rating will offset

  • Polls somewhat favor Trump, but when the first model is released will make difference

Right now it feels 60% chance model will favor Biden assuming no "bias", deviation from Nate's old model

Good analysis! Tipped you some mana.

Not gonna lie, with how 538's been looking nowadays i wouldn't be surprised if they just straight-up skipped having a model and put out, like, just an article or something

Nah they hired GEM to do the model so it'll say Biden has a 95% of winning.

@Marnix right? I still read 538, but wow it's so much worse than it was when Nate was running it. Makes me kinda sad honestly