Who will be the top four in the Republican New Hampshire Primary?
➕
Plus
127
Ṁ57k
resolved Jan 24
100%98.2%
Trump > Haley > [No Other Major Candidate]
0.0%
Trump > Desantis > Haley > Ramaswamy
0.0%
Trump > Haley > Desantis > Ramaswamy
0.0%
Haley > Trump > Desantis > Ramaswamy
0.0%
Trump > Haley > Christie > Desantis
0.0%
Trump > Haley > DeSantis > Christie
0.0%
Trump > Haley > Christie > Ramaswamy
0.0%
Haley > Trump > Christie > Desantis
0.1%
Trump > Haley > Desantis > [No Other Major Candidate]
0.0%
Trump > Haley > Desantis > Hutchinson
0.0%
Trump > Haley > Ramaswamy > Desantis
0.0%
Haley > Trump > Ramaswamy > Desantis
0.0%
Haley > Trump > DeSantis > Hutchinson
0.0%
Trump > Haley > Ramaswamy > [No Other Major Candidate]
0.0%
Haley > Trump > Ramaswamy > [No Other Major Candidate]
0.0%
Trump > Haley > Ramaswamy > Hutchinson
0.0%
Haley > Trump > Ramaswamy > Hutchinson
0.1%
Haley > Trump > Desantis > [No Other Major Candidate]
1.2%
Haley > Trump > [No Other Major Candidate]
0.2%
Trump > [No Other Major Candidate]

Will be based on the finalized popular vote count as reported by the media. The answer format is "First place > Second Place > Third Place > Fourth Place".

You can submit your own orders to split from "other". Please submit only new orders of exactly four candidates.

Note that this market only considers major candidates who are still in the race, as defined by 538:

If so many candidates drop out that there are not 4 major candidates, answers will use [No Other Major Candidate] in their ranking.

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Called by the AP just as the polls closed!

SimonboughtṀ100 YES

@Simon74fe dropped out candidates don't count

@Joshua Thanks, yes just noticed it

@PlasmaBallin LOL I've got one for third now

This is now just "Will Haley beat Trump x Will Hutchinson drop out?"

@PlasmaBallin There's always the chance that Ron and Nikki play rock paper scissors to decide who drops out and gets to be VP for the other one.

@Joshua Despite the joke I made about it on Discord, I think Haley's comment is proof that she's not planning to drop out yet. I would be very surprised if she dropped out before getting to the one state she might actually have a chance at winning. And it would be weird for DeSantis to drop out after one state when he got second place.

So all the options with Ramaswamy in them are guaranteed to resolve NO now, right?

@PlasmaBallin Unless you think he'll get a ton of votes despite dropping out

@Tumbles Based on the description, I don't think that would even count. It specifically says that candidates have to still be in the race

@PlasmaBallin Correct, everything with Ramaswamy is a no

I don't think any of haley/desantis/ramaswamy are dropping out before NH.

@Joshua oh god i was wrong

@Joshua 👀

@BoltonBailey At this rate, Haley is gonna drop out tomorrow and then Trump drops out on Tuesday.

@Joshua DeSantis dropping out perhaps increases the chance that Trump has offered/threatened something through backchannels, which perhaps make a Haley drop out likely too, hard to say.

@BoltonBailey In retrospect I think Trump > None was undervalued, but not sure now

It should be free mana betting down the options with Christie as he's dropping out and I'm not going to count write-ins

Quick ruling here, I'm only counting candidates that 538 is tracking. If there's less than 4 of those, answers should show [No Other Major Candidate] instead of a name

If Asa Hutchinson could also just drop out, that would make this a lot easier.

NH does not like Florida man

@mattyb Two of those are.

@thepurplebull Trump in a NY man. There’s nothing more NY-y than going down to Florida progressively more until you live there. That’s the most NY way to live your life.

@mattyb Almost two thirds of people in Florida were born outside of Florida. 8% born in New York alone. The entire state is boomers who come from outside the sun belt.

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