Will be based on the finalized popular vote count as reported by the media. The answer format is "First place > Second Place > Third Place > Fourth Place".
You can submit your own orders to split from "other". Please submit only new orders of exactly four candidates.
Note that this market only considers major candidates who are still in the race, as defined by 538:
If so many candidates drop out that there are not 4 major candidates, answers will use [No Other Major Candidate] in their ranking.
1,000
3.00@PlasmaBallin There's always the chance that Ron and Nikki play rock paper scissors to decide who drops out and gets to be VP for the other one.
@Joshua Despite the joke I made about it on Discord, I think Haley's comment is proof that she's not planning to drop out yet. I would be very surprised if she dropped out before getting to the one state she might actually have a chance at winning. And it would be weird for DeSantis to drop out after one state when he got second place.
@Tumbles Based on the description, I don't think that would even count. It specifically says that candidates have to still be in the race
I don't think any of haley/desantis/ramaswamy are dropping out before NH.
@Joshua DeSantis dropping out perhaps increases the chance that Trump has offered/threatened something through backchannels, which perhaps make a Haley drop out likely too, hard to say.
Quick ruling here, I'm only counting candidates that 538 is tracking. If there's less than 4 of those, answers should show [No Other Major Candidate] instead of a name
NH does not like Florida man
@thepurplebull Trump in a NY man. There’s nothing more NY-y than going down to Florida progressively more until you live there. That’s the most NY way to live your life.
@mattyb Almost two thirds of people in Florida were born outside of Florida. 8% born in New York alone. The entire state is boomers who come from outside the sun belt.