What will the Democratic Nominee's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election nationwide?
20
570Ṁ10kresolved Jan 21
100%98%
48.0 - 48.9%
1.0%
0.0 - 39.9%
0.0%
40.0 - 44.9%
0.0%
45.0 - 45.9%
0.1%
46.0 - 46.9%
0.1%
47.0 - 47.9%
0.2%
49.0 - 49.9%
0.2%
50.0 - 50.9%
0.2%
51.0 - 51.9%
0.1%
52.0 - 52.9%
0.1%
53.0 - 53.9%
0.1%
54.0 - 54.9%
0.1%
55.0 - 59.9%
0.0%
60.0 - 100.0%
Resolves based on the finalized total popular vote count in the 2024 presidential election. In 2020 this was 51.3% for Biden, in 2016 it was 48.2% for Clinton, in 2012 it was 51.1% for Obama, in 2008 it was 52.9% for Obama.
Any Democratic party nominee will be used instead of Biden if he is not the nominee, I'm just presuming he's the nominee.
You can keep an eye on the current raw polling average here. As of market creation, it's very close.
You can find more questions like this in the 2024 Vote Share Dashboard.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Joshua Vote counts certified and electoral college voted.
Can't see bin changing so is that enough to resolve?
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