What individual person will have the most-read Wikipedia page in January 2024? [No Politics / Royalty / Sports / Elon]
What individual person will have the most-read Wikipedia page in January 2024? [No Politics / Royalty / Sports / Elon]
28
1.3kṀ5030resolved Feb 3
100%86%
XXXTentacion
0.1%
[Invalid Answer]
0.6%
Taylor Swift
4%
Jeffrey Epstein
0.1%
Matthew Perry
0.2%
Claudine Gay
0.1%
[Invalid Answer]
0.1%
[Invalid Answer]
0.1%
Barry Keoghan
0.1%
Christopher Nolan
9%Other
A shorter term version of /Joshua/what-individual-person-will-have-th
This question will resolve based on the official Wikipedia numbers here. Numbers are reported daily, so you can try to add them up yourself if you want to get an edge before the whole monthly view is available.
This market will resolve to the individual human with the most popular article who is/was not primarily a politician/royal/athlete/Elon Musk, as those answers are a bit too easy in most cases.
In November this was Matthew Perry, followed by Taylor Swift.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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