Full answer:

The reasons given by the Former OpenAI Employees letter (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38369570)

This is one in a series of polls which resolve a variant of the main Sam Altman Firing Market:

I leave it up to the voters to define what they consider a significant factor. Each option will resolve independently to yes/no depending on if yes or no gets more votes in these polls.

I'm not sure if a poll is the best way to resolve markets around a mysterious event like this, but I think it's good for us to try out a lot of different formats so that we will better know what works for next time there is a mysterious event in the news.

I encourage you to write out your reasoning for your votes in the comments here or in the linked market.