Is Joe Biden mentally capable of another presidential term?
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I'm curious how we compare to Polymarket's audience.

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Was he ever capable? I think almost all of his decisions are really being made by advisors.

@ShadowyZephyr I’ve never understood this criticism. The presidency has never been a one man job, obviously a lot of the heavy lifting is done by his advisors. Plus wouldn’t you want someone that herds the advice of experts? George Washington is still praised to this day for his ability to delegate tasks to people that he believed would exceed his own ability.

@NGK Yes, but there’s a difference between consciously recognizing what tasks should be delegated and to whom and just being a figurehead that doesn’t actually do anything. Biden should be at least able to understand the politics of the things he is doing, even if they are advised by someone else, and I’m not confident that he can.

@ShadowyZephyr What evidence is there that this is even the case? Mark Milley says Biden is mentally sharp in his meetings. Kevin McCarthy has said the same in private to allies. The idea that Joe Biden is some kind of husk of a human seems wholly unfounded bar his stuttering which he’s had since young and has returned more prevalently in old age.

I need to start trading on Polymarket. So many mispriced markets. 27% of Biden dropping?

@Shump My guess is it’s the difference between a Vegas-esqu gambler. Who in my experience are much more likely to lean into the “both candidates are equally as bad” camp. I think that 27% essentially stems solely from that bias.

He's capable now, probably will be at the start of a next term, but I'm uncertain about his retaining his full capacities for an entire second term.

It depends on what you mean as mentally capable. If it's like - is he demented and incapable of making presidential decisions - no. But listening to his recent apperances, while he can still clearly think on his feet, he is slower at finding the right words than he was in the past - and that alone makes Generic Democrat probably a better presidential choice than him imo, excluding electoral concerns, because the president has a lot of authority

As of market creation:

@Joshua jesus that's a lotta cope