How will Biden's first post-debate press conference go on Thursday?
Jul 13
He'll perform very well, comparable to his best appearances in the past ~decade
He'll perform somewhat well, better than his ABC interview
He'll perform somewhat poorly, but still better than the debate
He'll perform very poorly, at or below recent debate performance
Press Conference doesn't happen Thursday

Joe Biden is planning to hold a press conference on Thursday July 11th, which will be under intense scrutiny.

This market resolves based on the consensus of three moderators (myself, @SemioticRivalry and @jacksonpolack ), based on the conference itself and media reactions. We won't trade.

An example of 'perform very well' would be the Biden vs Ryan VP 2012 debate.

See previously:

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@Joshua @SemioticRivalry @jacksonpolack with the assassination attempt in the news, there is going to be basically zero additional press coverage of this press conference to influence the resolution. Do y'all have a timeline on resolution by chance?

Did I imagine it or did he call somebody else "commander in chief" (before correcting himself)? If he did then I'd consider getting both the vice-president and president scrambled in his head along with the number of "anyway" lost thoughts and general weirdness as "at debate performance". Media reactions are better than debate so I think this resolves based on moderator opinions.

Are you guys going to broadcast your decision making on this week's Manifold Live?

I blame eigebrobot for the confusion here. He was tweeting that Biden looked terrible, but that's just not at all true relative to the debate and Stephanopoulos interview. He was cogent, the gaffes were just name mixups instead of 5s of jibberish, and he had moments of real energy. Clear step up from previous appearances.

People have to remember how hard he's trying. He may be too senile to be president, but all we can ask is that he give it his best effort.


Perhaps this was an example of... his goodest job?

He did the good-ass job he could do.

I gotta take eigenrobot’s side on this one, I’ll be honest. I think the bar is just on the floor after the debate.

This market also depends if we are accounting for expectations. For this conference expectations were lower than the ABC interview, and imo he did outperform by filibustering through foreign policy talking points he is comfortable in.

The misnaming gaffes aren't as politically disturbing as the whole if I gave it my best, that's what counts position, and much better than giving your opponents a clip of you saying you finally beat medicare

I think the bar should be set at what you would expect for an average "world leader".

Do you think Xi, Ursula, Keir or Vladmir would have performed better or worse?

The option is literally "He'll perform somewhat well, better than his ABC interview".

That does not say "He'll perform somewhat well, as goodest as Xi, Ursula, Keir, or Vladmir".

I thought it went ok due to this market. Just watched it. He looks and sounds awful. Not much better than the debate. “By the way, remember how I got so roundly criticized for being so pro-union - not labor, union. Well guess what. I’ve been the most pro-union-labor president in history. Not a joke.” He leaked his system prompt.

I’ll zig back to somewhat poor because surely >30% the mods saw what I saw.

Leaving aside cognitive decline, was his former self likeable at all? The few obviously cherrypicked clips I saw make him seem really unlikeable. Maybe his only window was actually when he was old enough to appear unthreatening but not too old to appear cognitively impaired.

bought Ṁ50 He'll perform somewh... YES

Yeah, sort of. He had a Mr Smith goes to Washington vibe. I don’t find young Joe threatening.

@ElmerFudd What exactly is wrong with clarifying that he means pro-union and not just pro-labor?

sold Ṁ39 He'll perform somewh... YES

Labor and union are synonymous in this context. Sounds like his staff drilled him on saying union instead of labor and he couldn't help but say it and then leak their instructions.

Ah, okay, I understand your point now. But I don't think they're exactly synonymous - to me it just sounded like he was deliberately emphasizing his support for unions.

For what it's worth, he said the same thing at his rally today - "it's not labor, it's union". And that was with a teleprompter, so it's definitely on purpose.

Hard to benchmark this performance between somewhat well and somewhat poorly. The Vice President Trump gaffe was hard to forget. Answers were not coherent.

How does he performed somewhat poorly, better than his ABC interview resolve?

bought Ṁ500 He'll perform somewh... YES

imo, ABC interview accelerated concerns, while this conference decelerated

Feel like this markets always just resolve to the highest percentage, since that’s how the majority felt it went.

This interview didn’t tip the scales at all, the democrats who want him out still want him out and have a bunch of gaffs to point to, the people who want him in can easily shrug it off since he didn’t make any major blunders

Slightly decelerated, maybe. I dont envy the deciders of this market or Nancy Pelosi / whoever decides how to move forward

New conspiracy theory unlocked:
Joe Biden has an incredible ability to hop from one train of thought to another; with zero regards to perplexity. What he is really doing is speaking in a cryptographic sequence in order to speak truth past all the bots that have been invading our spaces. Why do you think all the successful politicians are seemingly incomprehensible, like trump and RFK? It's to throw off the AIs.

I watched the whole thing, and still don't know how to bet.

It’s subjective

I bet "somewhat well", thinking that’s where the consensus (I mean consensus across the media landscape, not as defined by highest percentage here) is landing, which may contribute to how this resolves. And that’s how it felt to me. But I admit that’s not based on an endorsement of his performance but rather a reflection of the fact that expectations and the bar that comes with them were low.