Average will be taken from RCP 2-way average.
Trump took the lead on September 11th, and has held it since.
This market resolves to the month in which RCP is updated to show Biden in the lead, or else "Not before Election Day". Resolves based on Pacific Time if there is ambiguity. This is the date that RCP is updated, not the date the polling took place.
You can find more questions like this on the polling dashboard.
@ManifoldPolitics Can you make a version of this market for the Trump vs Harris polls?
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
@Joshua probably people have asked this before, but it is not on the description: how does it resolve if Biden (or Trump) are not the candidate anymore?
Hmmmm, I suppose it might depend on how RCP handles it but I think the most likely outcome is that Biden or Trump being replaced would resolve as "not before election day".
The alternative would be that RCP still keeps updating the tracker for some reason with a smaller number of polls about if the matchup were still hypothetically happening, like how pollsters already do occasional hypothetical polls of Newsom vs Trump. I think resolving on hypothetical polls would not be in the spirit of the market, though.
@Joshua the description says โ2 wayโ but the link goes to a 5-way headlineโฆ is there some other page that has 2 way results or what am I missing?
@Tyler31 you are misreading the link to the 5-way average as a statement that the 2-way is the 5-way.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Thatโs super confusing. You convinced me to get a laptop out and it still took me a few minutes to understand.
We've got a new version of this market on the official politics account using the generally superior 538 average:
Also a bunch more new 538 polling markets on the polling dashboard:
https://manifold.markets/news/political-polling
Looks like April is a no barring anything wild happening. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html?Date=20240428&Profile=CNNPolitics&utm_content=1714306087&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter