Resolves to the actress who wins the Oscar. Market is open through the ceremony, so "Other" will not pay out.
Please submit any additional answers in the form of [actress name] – [movie name].
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@mattyb tbh my heart still feels like it'll be Lily (somehow Emma winning is hard for me to picture). But after seeing so many sources pick Emma, I felt like I needed to ~split the difference (but that's why I stopped @ 45%).
@Ziddletwix I think Hollywood’s going with the first Navtive actress story over Emma (who I think had the better performance), especially with Emma already having a statue.
@mattyb Yup Lily has a narrative arc, & Emma has won before, so if the academy had to reach group consensus, imo they'd pick on Lily. OTOH, Hollywood is weird & insular, and awards are ultimately just a sum of personal votes. So it's easy for the better narrative to get overturned by "more individual people just like X".
I try not to index too much on what makes for a good narrative because ultimately there's no intentionality behind any of this nonsense lol (e.g. Chadwick Boseman's posthumous = perfect narrative, but random voters preferred Hopkins). No clue what to expect with this one, probably a consensus favorite will emerge in the next few weeks
@Ziddletwix Decided to start looking at all these all properly today, gonna be fun! I made a new market for anyone who wants to try to call all four actor/actress awards:
She won the Globe for drama