Who will win the Best Actress in a Leading Role Oscar at the 2024 Academy Awards?
31
520
1.3K
Mar 11
65%
Emma Stone – Poor Things
0.3%
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
0%
Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple
0.1%
Margot Robbie - Barbie
0.1%
Greta Lee – Past Lives
33%
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
0.2%
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
1.2%
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
0.5%
Other

Resolves to the actress who wins the Oscar. Market is open through the ceremony, so "Other" will not pay out.

Please submit any additional answers in the form of [actress name] – [movie name].

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boughtṀ10Emma Stone – Poor T... YES

@Ziddletwix I’m not budging off Lily, probably to my own loss.

@mattyb tbh my heart still feels like it'll be Lily (somehow Emma winning is hard for me to picture). But after seeing so many sources pick Emma, I felt like I needed to ~split the difference (but that's why I stopped @ 45%).

bought Ṁ0 of Emma Stone – Poor T... NO

@Ziddletwix I think Hollywood’s going with the first Navtive actress story over Emma (who I think had the better performance), especially with Emma already having a statue.

@mattyb Yup Lily has a narrative arc, & Emma has won before, so if the academy had to reach group consensus, imo they'd pick on Lily. OTOH, Hollywood is weird & insular, and awards are ultimately just a sum of personal votes. So it's easy for the better narrative to get overturned by "more individual people just like X".

I try not to index too much on what makes for a good narrative because ultimately there's no intentionality behind any of this nonsense lol (e.g. Chadwick Boseman's posthumous = perfect narrative, but random voters preferred Hopkins). No clue what to expect with this one, probably a consensus favorite will emerge in the next few weeks

bought Ṁ50 Emma Stone – Poor T... YES

@mattyb looks like @Joshua disagrees (i'm always glad for anything that shakes up the oscars markets lol)

bought Ṁ70 Emma Stone – Poor T... YES

@Ziddletwix Decided to start looking at all these all properly today, gonna be fun! I made a new market for anyone who wants to try to call all four actor/actress awards:

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

She won the Globe for drama

Emma Stone – Poor Things

She just won the Globe for comedy

bought Ṁ10 of Emily Blunt – Oppenh... NO

I don’t think emily blunts role in Oppenheimer will be considered a leading role