🏅 Top traders

Anthropic raised the pricing of their crappiest model (Haiku 3.5) “because it outperformed Claude 3” which many have taken as a sign that there will be no Claude 3.5.

Has anthropic started the pretraining runs of its next gen frontier models yet? e.g. Claude 4.x

Guessing they were going to call 3.5 Sonnet new 3.5 Opus but felt it was too small of a step up to justify that name.

I think this signals we are reaching the end of the traditional LLM era. We might not be able to get these things much better than they are now

@JaundicedBaboon I don't see evidence of that. My read is that the performance gain of a larger model relative to this Sonnet upgrade had minimal ROI for larger parameters.

We generally see convergence to "medium-big" model, small model, and in some cases, micro model across industry.

@JaundicedBaboon same price per token suggests same/similar parameters, though they could accept a lower margin or make other compensating optimizations. But an Opus would probably have several times more parameters (Sonnet is widely rumored to be overtrained/underparameterized relative to what's compute optimal).

@JoshYou I suspect the model could be larger and they are just taking more of a loss. Remember, they explicitly promised 3.5 Opus later in the year, so it seems reasonable to assume they did train a model they originally intended to release with that name.

If 3.5 Sonnet new is a different model than 3.5 Opus as you are suggesting, it implies that Anthropic spent order of hundreds of millions training 3.5 Opus only to decide to scrap it entirely. This seems unlikely

@JaundicedBaboon Opus would be slower, but the new Sonnet is the same speed as old Sonnet

note: this market will not N/A. If there will never be a 3.5 Opus it will resolve to the last option.

they may never release opus 3.5
https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_/status/1848745912140763497

Is there a market about only October?

@Guuber3

Hearing rumors it will be released this week

@MalachiteEagle that are newer than the rumors floating around 1-2 days ago? (that ended up being about Gemini)

@JoshYou not sure, don't think I've seen anything convincing that was posted today

hmm

@Mira do you know something us mortals don't?

I think opus 3.5 will be released later rather than sooner.

Sonnet 3.5 is subjectively the best LLM on the market right now (broad consensus seems to be in this direction) and this makes a slower release more strategically attractive, and thus more probable.

Thoughts?

@JoeBoyle why would that make a slower release more strategically attractive?

I also do think it's rather gonna be released later, but for another reason:

I just don't expect anthropic to have that much of a lead towards the competition, especially OpenAI.

Claude 3.5 Sonnet is the best sota model out there already and I don't think they're able to just leap ahead out of nowhere with comparable access to data, compute, knowledge etc. which is available today, as the competing companies do have access to, too, currently.

And another reason is the formulation of their announcement to release the models

"[...] later this year".

Why would they write something like that if they intended to release it just a couple weeks or months after sonnet/the announcement? To me that sentence sounds very much like towards the end of the said time frame. Semantically and logically.

Why would one tell a fried you'll arrive at his place within one hour if you assumed to be there in 20 minutes?

That being said, I hope my comment doesn't convince anybody not to place a bet on a sooner release as I'm happy to take them ;)

@Felle It would make a slower release more attractive if the aim is to stay somewhere near the top of the leaderboards

Borrowing this from reddit and /u/RenoHadreas
Anthropic's safety announcement offers clues into Claude 3.5 Opus development timeline : ClaudeAI (reddit.com)

Anthropic has just released a blog post that gives us some interesting insights into their development of their upcoming model, Claude 3.5 Opus. Here's what we can piece together:

1. The announcement was released today, August 8, 2024.

2. They're developing a "next generation" AI safeguarding system that hasn't been publicly deployed yet.

3. They're launching a bug bounty program to test this new system before public deployment.

4. Anthropic is accepting applications for the bug bounty program until August 16, 2024, and will follow up with selected applicants "in the fall".

5. The bounty program focuses on finding "universal jailbreak" vulnerabilities in critical areas like CBRN and cybersecurity.

What we know about Claude 3.5 Opus:

• Anthropic has already stated that it's coming "later this year" (2024).

• This new safety testing initiative is likely part of the final steps before release.

The bug testing phase might be relatively short, given the "later this year" timeline. We could potentially see Claude 3.5 Opus released sometime in Q4 2024, possibly November or December. A late Q3 2024 release is also plausible.

Link to the blog post: https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-safety-bug-bounty

Yes it can be

Claude is down right now. Maybe a sign of incoming Opus?

Anybody know why August or September increased so much?