I think opus 3.5 will be released later rather than sooner.

Sonnet 3.5 is subjectively the best LLM on the market right now (broad consensus seems to be in this direction) and this makes a slower release more strategically attractive, and thus more probable.

Thoughts?

@JoeBoyle why would that make a slower release more strategically attractive?

I also do think it's rather gonna be released later, but for another reason:

I just don't expect anthropic to have have that much of a lead towards the competition, especially OpenAI.

Claude 3.5 Sonnet is the best sota model out there already and I don't think they're able to just leap ahead out of nowhere with comparable access to data, compute, knowledge etc. which is available today, as the competing companies do have access to, too, currently.

And another reason is the formulation of their announcement to release the models

"[...] later this year".

Why would they write something like that if they intended to release it just a couple weeks or months after sonnet/the announcement? To me that sentence sounds very much like towards the end of the said time frame. Semantically and logically.

Why would one tell a fried you'll arrive at his place within one hour if you assumed to be there in 20 minutes?

That being said, I hope my comment doesn't convince anybody not to place a bet on a sooner release as I'm happy to take them ;)

Borrowing this from reddit and /u/RenoHadreas
Anthropic's safety announcement offers clues into Claude 3.5 Opus development timeline : ClaudeAI (reddit.com)

Anthropic has just released a blog post that gives us some interesting insights into their development of their upcoming model, Claude 3.5 Opus. Here's what we can piece together:

1. The announcement was released today, August 8, 2024.

2. They're developing a "next generation" AI safeguarding system that hasn't been publicly deployed yet.

3. They're launching a bug bounty program to test this new system before public deployment.

4. Anthropic is accepting applications for the bug bounty program until August 16, 2024, and will follow up with selected applicants "in the fall".

5. The bounty program focuses on finding "universal jailbreak" vulnerabilities in critical areas like CBRN and cybersecurity.

What we know about Claude 3.5 Opus:

• Anthropic has already stated that it's coming "later this year" (2024).

• This new safety testing initiative is likely part of the final steps before release.

The bug testing phase might be relatively short, given the "later this year" timeline. We could potentially see Claude 3.5 Opus released sometime in Q4 2024, possibly November or December. A late Q3 2024 release is also plausible.

Link to the blog post: https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-safety-bug-bounty

Yes it can be

Claude is down right now. Maybe a sign of incoming Opus?

Anybody know why August or September increased so much?

Am I doing manipulations?!

You truly are a master manipulator 🤝🏼

Sorry dude, I wasn't actually manipulating. I was overwhelmed by some speculations on the Web.

That's exactly what a master manipulator would say

These speculations!

that's not even speculation? it's just a hypothetical question. unless I'm missing some context

Yeah, you are. You didn't even read it carefully!

Hey @AlpAtalan5ytf :)

Just being curious:

What makes you so confident about claude 3.5 opus releasing the coming days?

I can't find any rumors about that online.