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MANIFOLD
Will the UK pass a comprehensive AI Safety Act before the end of 2027?
3
Ṁ500Ṁ78
2027
42%
chance

Resolves YES if, before January 1 2028, the UK Parliament passes a comprehensive act establishing a framework for AI safety or governance.

The market will resolve NO on fragmented new legislation, or updates/sector-specific tweaks to existing legislation.

The act must create new legislation specifically targeting existing or future AI models, covering more than one industry or application.

The act must include at least one of the following:

  • legally binding safety assessments pre-deployment or during training

  • statutory enforcement/audit/subpoena powers by the AISI or a newly created centralised regulatory body

What explicitly resolves to NO:

  • Sector-specific updates or guidance issued independently by existing watchdogs

  • Minor amendments inside existing laws (e.g. Online Safety Act)

  • Procedural bills that do not set mandatory AI safety rules.

Market context
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