Will this market resolve to yes?
resolved Feb 11

Resolves yes if this market resolves to yes. Otherwise resolves to no.

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predicted NO

I made a sequel to this market

Wait, how does this market resolve if it resolves N/A??

@JoshuaB this contradiction in the market description calls for a N/A resolution i think

predicted NO

@JoshuaB Per the description, if the market resolves to N/A, then it resolves to NO. In other words, it won't resolve to N/A because that would contradict the rules in the description.

@JosephNoonan Most excellent point. My bad for not reading the description closely enough!!


since this is going to be resolved by your decision and it could go either way i will ask kindly that you resolve it in my favor. this would make my day :D (my position is no)

@Birger sold my position for profit :D thanks for the like ❤

@Birger i got me some yes shares :D

@Birger my NO position is back :D

predicted NO

Wow, only 7%? Sound like somebody needs to spike this up to 50% :)

OK, since the probability has stabilized around 50%, let's make this more interesting. Now I have bet in the market, and surely would want to resolve it in my favor, since I can choose either yes or no and be perfectly consistent. Let's see how the probability changes.

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan Since you can always quickly change your position before resolving and we haven’t played these games before (meaning I don’t have a prior model of your behaviour), it doesn’t really update me in any direction:)

predicted NO

@TomCohen True, but I would have to sell my existing shares at a slight loss. So the optimal strategy would be to bet No as long as the probability doesn't go too far below 50% (since, if it went down too far, I could sell my No shares at a profit and then buy cheaper yes shares).