This markets resolves YES if it resolves to N/A. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
only one correct way to resolve this.
if it resolves to NA it should resolve to yes -><-
if it resolves to yes it should resolve to no -><-
if it resolves to PROB it should resolve to no -><-
if it resolves to NO it should resolve to NO. QED
failure modes (unlikely):
- The market creator gets it wrong (doesn't seem likely)
- The market creator won't resolve (no reason it shouldn't)
@MichaelLatowicki Yeah, the market's probability is surprisingly high given that there is only one logical outcome. Maybe the logic being explicitly spelled out will make more people bet NO.
@JosephNoonan how do you interpret resolving a market to PROB? What does that mean in your opinion?
@MichaelLatowicki It's not the same as resolving to N/A. So if this market were to resolve to PROB, that means that it should resolve NO.
Related markets
Related markets