Will this market resolve to N/A?
9%
chance

This markets resolves YES if it resolves to N/A. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

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MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowickibought Ṁ100 of NO

only one correct way to resolve this.
if it resolves to NA it should resolve to yes -><-

if it resolves to yes it should resolve to no -><-

if it resolves to PROB it should resolve to no -><-

if it resolves to NO it should resolve to NO. QED

MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowickiis predicting NO at 16%

failure modes (unlikely):
- The market creator gets it wrong (doesn't seem likely)

- The market creator won't resolve (no reason it shouldn't)

MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowickiis predicting NO at 11%

Sorry, no reason he shouldn't.

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan

@MichaelLatowicki Yeah, the market's probability is surprisingly high given that there is only one logical outcome. Maybe the logic being explicitly spelled out will make more people bet NO.

MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowickibought Ṁ90 of NO

@JosephNoonan how do you interpret resolving a market to PROB? What does that mean in your opinion?

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan

@MichaelLatowicki It's not the same as resolving to N/A. So if this market were to resolve to PROB, that means that it should resolve NO.