The last market I made on this topic is a bit boring because anyone can make it resolve YES, so here's one that's a little more interesting. If the total number of markets with "rationalussy" in the title that resolve YES in 2023 is greater than the total number that resolve NO, this market will resolve to YES. If the total number that resolve NO is greater, this market will resolve to NO. If they are equal, this will resolve to 50%.
Basically the same caveats as my previous market (https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-any-market-with-the-word-ratio) apply: I won't count incorrect or incoherent resolutions, or markets that seemingly only put the word in the title to manipulate this or another market, but I will count resolutions that happen after 2023 as long as the criteria were met in 2023. (See the other market for clarification on these points).
To avoid self-referentiality, I won't include this market itself in the count. I also won't include the market linked above in the count if the resolution of that market depends on the resolution of this one, but otherwise, I will include it.
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๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน97 | |
| 2 | แน45 | |
| 3 | แน35 | |
| 4 | แน34 | |
| 5 | แน32 |
Going through all rationalussy markets that have been resolved so far according to Manifold search, I count 37 YES's and 44 NO's (plus 20 that had other resolutions, like polls, multiple choice markets, or binary markets that resolved N/A or PROB). All of those resolved based on events that happened before 2024, so they count towards this market. However, for some reason, the market on whether Scott Alexander would write an ACX blog post and the meta-market on whether any of five early rationalussy markets would misresolve show up as unresolved on that site even though they both resolved NO, so that adds another 2 to the NO total, while the unlisted "Is rationalussy good or bad" adds 1 to the YES total. There are three closed and unresolved markets containing the word "rationalussy", but only one of them (the market on whether there will be a rationalussy movie) counts towards the total - the other two are this very market and the one on the American Dialect Society's word of the year, which does not count because they haven't selected the 2023 word of the year yet, so that market will not resolve based on events in 2023.
There are no other markets that should resolve based on events in 2023 (I checked the open markets containing the word "rationalussy" to be sure), so this market can resolve NO with a score of 38 - 46, which may possibly change by one depending on how the movie market resolves (probably NO, but even if it resolved YES it wouldn't overturn the outcome of this market).
Ok, it's time for me to update this with another traunch of rationalussy markets. "Is rationalussy good or bad?" (resolves like "Am I pretty?") finally ended today, and it resolved YES. And, as always happens with this type of self-resolving market, it brought a bunch of other markets with it. Here is (I think) an exhaustive list of meta-markets on "Is rationalussy good or bad?", all of which have now resolved.:
/JosephNoonan/will-the-probability-of-is-rational
/JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be
/deagol/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be-5430c5813530
/deagol/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-fl
/deagol/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-fl-0039635fd436
/JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be-5698d3382864
/deagol/will-will-is-rationalussy-good-or-b
/deagol/will-will-is-rationalussy-good-or-b-19a5e673f945
/JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be-41ad0a902994
/JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be-43956f76b29c
/JosephNoonan/will-the-final-average-of-is-ration
Together with the four YES resolutions below (the market about the Urban Dictionary mug has resolved YES since I posted that comment), that puts the current score at 11-5, increasing the lead for YES to a much needed 6 (much needed since there will be a lot of markets resolving NO at the end of the year, so YES needs to be in the lead beforehand to come out on top).
In addition to all of those markets, there are a few more markets containing the word "rationalussy" that have been created since my last update.
/JosephNoonan/is-burger-blast-the-place-to-be-res
/ButtocksCocktoasten/will-the-word-rationalussy-be-added
/ButtocksCocktoasten/will-manifold-leagues-introduce-a-r
/rachel/will-sinclair-say-the-word-rational
/NathanNguyen/will-anyone-with-10000-twitter-foll
Most of those are already forgone NO resolutions, but the one about Twitter will be interesting (and is currently judged as a likely YES), while the Burger Blast market is a pure toss-up. There's also one more, but it won't be included in the final count because it doesn't resolve this year: /ButtocksCocktoasten/will-rationalussy-be-a-major-topic
I think that's all the new rationalussy markets. Hopefully someone will let me know if I've missed any.
Update: The score is now 3-0 in favor of YES. However, that should be taken with a massive grain of salt, since most markets take the form "Will X happen in timeframe T", and for most of the rationalussy markets, T is "by the end of 2023", so the markets that resolve NO won't resolve until the end of the year. Thus, YES was expected to have the lead early on, and it is pretty much meaningless. Here is the current rundown of the markets.
Already resolved YES:
/astyerche/will-someone-provide-a-definition-o
/JosephNoonan/will-any-market-with-the-word-ratio
/jfjurchen/will-at-least-five-additional-ratio
Likely to resolve YES:
/JosephNoonan/will-anyone-buy-the-urban-dictionar
Wild card:
/SG/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-write-a-twee
Likely to resolve NO:
/Yev/will-scott-alexander-write-an-acx-b
/JonathanRay/will-any-of-the-5-linked-rationalus
Very likely to resolve NO:
/ButtocksCocktoasten/will-manifold-introduce-a-rationalu
Virtually certain to resolve NO:
/ButtocksCocktoasten/will-elon-musk-change-the-name-of-t
/ButtocksCocktoasten/will-realdonaldtrump-write-a-tweet
/JosephNoonan/will-ted-cruz-like-a-tweet-containi
/ButtocksCocktoasten/will-every-twitter-user-simultaneou
/DylanSlagh/will-the-word-rationalussy-by-spoke
/Tetraspace/will-the-word-rationalussy-appear-i
Virtually certain to never resolve:
/ButtocksCocktoasten/is-rationalussy-the-true-name-of-go
Permanent/Not Yes-or-No, and therefore doesn't count towards either total:
/MartinRandall/what-is-the-best-definition-of-rati
/ButtocksCocktoasten/what-is-the-best-word-in-the-englis
/ButtocksCocktoasten/rationalussy-stock
/ButtocksCocktoasten/would-you-join-a-cult-based-around
@LukeHanks I think it's so easy to create both that it doesn't really make a difference. For any market that would resolve NO, you can add "not" to the title to make one that will resolve YES. Or you can create a market that you personally cause to resolve YES, like "Will I say the word 'rationalussy' out loud in 2023?" or one that has to resolve YES like "Does the word 'rationalussy' have 12 letters?" I still expect this to resolve NO given the fact that the majority of currently existing "rationalussy" markets are overwhelmingly likely to resolve NO, and those that are created in the future will probably be similar, but someone could easily manipulate this into resolving YES if they wanted to.
@JosephNoonan wait so my YES counts? /deagol/will-will-is-rationalussy-good-or-b
ah but that only offsets your NO /JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be-5698d3382864
I plan to do another derivative of the good/bad average soon, aiming for YES, but I guess it all turns this into a pointless market. Maybe exclude self-resolving stuff like the average will be x and its derivatives, and the examples you mention?
@deagol I don't see any reason to exclude "Is rationalussy good or bad?" and its derivatives from this market. Once it resolves, I'll just count up all the derivatives and see how many yeses and nos are contributed.
@PlasmaBallin the total volume of this market is M883, so, at M50/market, if you need to create more than 17 market to flip this one over it wouldn't be worth it