Will any market with the word "rationalussy" in the title resolve YES in 2023?
19
376
370
resolved Apr 12
Resolved
YES

Seems like April Fool's Day is a good time to make another one of... these.

This market will resolve YES if any other market with the word "rationalussy" in the name has its positive resolution criteria met in 2023. This includes markets that have not been created yet, as long as they are created in 2023. A few clarifications:

  1. I won't count incorrect resolutions, or markets that don't have coherently stated resolution criteria. I will count subjective or self-resolving markets, though, and I will count a YES resolution as correct even if it is only retroactively so (e.g., if the market about Yudkowsky tweeting "rationalussy" was accidentally resolved YES prematurely, but later in 2023, he actually tweeted it, this market would resolve YES). If there is disagreement over the correct resolution of a "rationalussy" market, I will use the market creator's judgement (i.e., whatever they resolve the market to) to determine whether this market should resolve YES.

  2. It still counts even if the market is not actually resolved in 2023, as long as the criteria for resolving it YES are already satisfied. For example, if Yudkowsky tweets the word "rationalussy" on Dec. 31, but the market on it doesn't get resolved until Jan. 1, this market will still resolve YES.

  3. This market won't resolve self-referentially (i.e., I won't resolve it to YES on the basis that it, itself, resolved to YES).

  4. I won't count markets that have nothing to do with the word "rationalussy" and seemingly just put it in the title as a way of manipulating this market.

    Apr 1, 10:27pm: Will any market with the word "rationalussy" in the title resolve YES is 2023? → Will any market with the word "rationalussy" in the title resolve YES in 2023?

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predicted YES

Here's a more interesting version of this one:

predicted YES

Resolved YES

bought Ṁ82 of YES

Finally, a rationalussy market with the correct probability.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Note to self: if, come November, this isn't satisfied, then make a "Will Isaac King tweet the word rationalussy" market and offer to split the profits with him

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@citrinitas Or just make a market titled "Will Eliezer Yudkowsky NOT write a tweet containing the word 'rationalussy' by the end 2023?"