Will Team YES have a larger power tower of shares than Team NO?
16
168
290
resolved Apr 25
Resolved
NO

One of my most popular markets asks /JosephNoonan/will-team-yes-have-more-total-logsh, which is equivalent to asking which team has the largest product of shares. So, let's go one hyperoperation up.

To be precise, if n and m are respectively the total numbers of YES and NO holders at close, and Y1 ≥ Y2 ≥ ... ≥Yn are the numbers of shares held by each YES holders, with N1 ≥ N2 ≥ ... ≥ Nm being the same for NO holders, then this market resolves YES if Y=Y1^Y2^...^Yn > N=N1^N2^...Nm, and NO if N ≥ Y.

The power towers should be evaluated in the standard way, from top to bottom (e.g., a^b^c = a^(b^c), not (a^b)^c, since the latter is just a^bc).

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predicted NO

Man, I meant to shoot this down to 0% at the last second, but as always, I screwed up the timing.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Someone could easily put Team NO in a clear lead by buying some NO shares, while still leaving the probability at >50%, thus making it beneficial for even more people to buy NO.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@BoltonBailey I'm hoping it will be easy, since a lot of markets like this tend to converge to one side once it's obvious who's winning. If not, then it might take a long time to resolve. Hopefully it doesn't end up in a situation like this market: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/what-is-the-largest-number

predicted NO
predicted NO

@BoltonBailey Now we just need someone crazier than me to make a tetration version of this. I would love to see how they attempt to resolve that

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