Will Team YES have more total log(shares) at close than Team NO?
Will Team YES have more total log(shares) at close than Team NO?
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1.5kṀ35kresolved Apr 25
Resolved
NO1H
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1D
1W
1M
ALL
After this market closes, I will add up the numbers of log(shares) held by each YES trader and each NO trader. If the sum is larger for the YES traders, this resolves YES. Otherwise (including a tie), it resolves NO.
This was inspired by Conflux's market:
Now the the benefit to having more traders on your side, as opposed to having larger bets, will be even more pronounced, to the point where it is basically impossible to manipulate the market by making large bets (though other forms of manipulation would still work).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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