Will Manifolders see through the linguistic illusion on my survey?
Will Manifolders see through the linguistic illusion on my survey?
17
350Ṁ657resolved Oct 9
Resolved
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My survey will contain a linguistic illusion. I won't reveal what the illusion is or how to see through it until the survey closes, but I will be able to tell if people have seen through it or not from their responses.
I have encoded a description of the illusion and how I'll judge whether people have seen through it in the following Sha256 hash:
2eab9fd3d55d717869395f304fa92fffa6dbd5f0c4c38ff14720ab2962b1cba3
This resolves YES if there are more people who see through the illusion than people who are fooled by it.
See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.
The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.