Will Manifold fix the "closed and unresolved markets" bug by the end of March?
4
139
110
resolved Mar 25
Resolved
YES

Currently, there is a bug where Manifold counts markets with a distant closing date as closed and unresolved on the "Markets" tab of user profiles. It currently says that I have two closed and unresolved markets, even though I have none. Although it doesn't list which markets are closed and unresolved, the number first appeared as 1 when I made the following market:

It then went up to 2 when I created this market:

Both of these markets are intended to stay open indefinitely, so their close dates are very late, and this seems to cause Manifold to count them as closed and unresolved. However, users are still able to bet on them, so they are not actually closed. My guess is that this results from an integer overflow error - something along the lines of Manifold using fewer bits to store the closing times of markets when calculating the number of closed and unresolved markets than it does when determining if the market should actually stay open.

This market will resolve YES if the bug is fixed sometime in March. I will determine that the bug is fixed if Manifold no longer incorrectly reports the number of closed and unresolved markets when I check my Markets tab. It resolves NO if Manifold still reports the number incorrectly when I check at the beginning of April.

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sold Ṁ50 of NO

Just checked, and it seems to be fixed now:

I looked at other profiles to make sure that the closed and unresolved number was actually fixed, rather than just removed entirely, and it does show up on some other people's profiles, so it looks like the bug was in fact fixed.

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan Ugh, I JUST changed from yes to no 😶

predicted NO

@NoamY I now realize my mistake was not checking the market creation date, if I did I would have realized only about 4/5 of the time had passed.

predicted NO

Seems like the probability of this should go down, given that it still hasn't happened yet.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@JosephNoonan seems to be resolved

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Gabrielle No, that orange 2 next to the total markets is the bug in question. It is meant to be the number of closed and unresolved markets I have, but it is wrong - I actually don't have any closed and unresolved markets currently. The two that it incorrectly counts as closed and unresolved are set to close in the far future.