By my count, this one is the 76th.
Markets that are already resolved and markets created before 2023 all count. So do unlisted markets, as long as I know of their existence at the end of 2023 (I currently know of one). Private markets will not count. All market types count, including polls, bounties, and deprecated types. This market also counts as one of the markets.
This is based on whether the market has "rationalussy" in the title at the end of 2023 (Central Time), but I will exclude markets that have nothing to do with rationalussy and didn't include the word in their title until the end of the year in an apparent attempt to manipulate this market. I will also exclude any markets that have been deleted by the end of 2023 (N/A resolutions still count, though).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ201 | |
| 2 | Ṁ171 | |
| 3 | Ṁ36 | |
| 4 | Ṁ29 | |
| 5 | Ṁ27 |
People are also trading
as of right this instant (2 hours after closing), there are 144 according to https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-search/?q=rationalussy&closed=true&r=true (making it 145 if you account for the unlisted market)
Easy way to track the progress of this market: https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-search/
Just search for rationalussy, include all statuses, and add 1 to the total to account for the unlisted market that isn't in the search results.
Fools! Never bet against something that anyone else can make happen with a few clicks. Only 25 more rationalussy markets are needed for "100 or less" to be a no-go. That's pretty easy for a lot of users to do on their own. It only costs 1250 mana to create that many (and you would get a lot, if not all of it back from UTBs). In fact, you could make them all free response questions, and then it would only cost 625. I've made single markets that are about that expensive before. In reality, even less will need to be spent by someone trying to manipulate this market because there are naturally going to be more markets anyway. If the number doesn't get past 100 organically, it will be pretty close by the end of the year.
@JosephNoonan Lesson I learned from this market. In particular, what Marcus said in this comment: https://manifold.markets/seaton/will-this-market-have-100-or-more-u#rcggW7G4oO7XpALxbHBv