Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki specifically, parody included? [Self-editing]
14
15
270
resolved Apr 11
Resolved
YES

Every person who makes a trade on this market (including limit orders) may comment one word to add to the end of the title of this market (not including the "self-editing" tag). There is only one word per trader, so you can't get around the limit by making multiple trades. I will also not put anything that I deem horribly offensive into the title, and I will include punctuation that makes the most sense based on the current sequence of words in the title.

Instead of adding a word, traders may choose to LOCK or SCRATCH the market under certain conditions. LOCK means no one can change the title for a week, but can only be performed when the market title is currently a coherent question. SCRATCH means that the entire title is erased, and every trader can add a new word again (except the trader who just scratched the market). It can only be performed if the title is at least 10 words long (not including the "self-editing" tag).

I will resolve once the following criteria are met (and extend the close date if necessary):

1. The title of the market is a coherent yes-or-no question.

2. I know the answer to the question (I am allowed to perform research to find out).

3. Providing the answer wouldn't cause harm to anyone (other than the people who lose mana from the resolution).

4. The question doesn't reference the market or its resolution in a way that makes proper resolution impossible.

5. The question must actually have a yes-or-no answer, i.e. it shouldn't be conditional on something in a way that would cause it to resolve N/A.

I will resolve based on my interpretation of the question. Also, for the purposes of resolution, a word will be considered "added to the title" as soon as the comment to add it is posted, even if I have not personally seen it and edited the title yet. So you can't avoid a resolution by scratching the market before I see the comment.

Apr 7, 11:55pm: ...? → Will...?

Apr 8, 3:16am: Will...? → Will Smith...?

Apr 8, 4:01am: Will Smith...? → Will Smith College...?

Apr 8, 9:57am: Will Smith College...? → Will Smith College campus mandate...?

Apr 8, 1:45pm: Will Smith College campus mandate...? → Will Smith College campus mandate masks?

Apr 8, 2:36pm: Will Smith College campus mandate masks? → Will Smith College campus mandate masks kabuki?

Apr 8, 2:39pm: Will Smith College campus mandate masks kabuki? → Will Smith College campus mandate masks kabuki...?

Apr 8, 2:49pm: Will Smith College campus mandate masks kabuki...? → Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki specifically?

Apr 8, 5:32pm: Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki specifically? → Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki specifically? [Self-editing]

Apr 11, 10:45am: Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki specifically? [Self-editing] → Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki specifically, parody included? [Self-editing]

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predicted NO

I made a few new versions of this:

The first one uses the same rules as this one (with a few updates and clarifications), and the second allows you to add the word anywhere you want, except the end. The third allows you to edit a logical formula. I had one that let each person add two words instead of just one, but that one resolved so quickly that I didn't even time to post this comment first.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

included

bought Ṁ400 of YES

This should resolve:

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@CodeandSolder Clearly a parody account and not the real Smith College campus. Says so right in the name 🙃

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@JimHays but the resolution criteria clearly specify this is the one it's talking about, see comment below

predicted NO

@CodeandSolder I don’t follow

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@JimHays after including the edit in the comment below the title is "Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki, specifically twitter.com/codeandsolder?

bought Ṁ75 of NO

@CodeandSolder Ah, I just thought you were posting a link, not adding a word

predicted NO

Your first option doesn’t seem like a word (it does say word and not “character string without spaces” for example, and I don’t think you’re inserting “parody” in a location that makes sense in your alternate attempt.

predicted YES

@JimHays it's not ideal but I think it makes sense, "Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki, specifically parody", English is quite tolerant of weird ordering

predicted NO

Even if we suspend the question of whether “parody“ modifies the right word there, “kabuki” now doesn’t make grammatical sense anymore without “specifically”.

predicted YES

@JimHays fixed

twitter.com/codeandsolder, and a coma before specifically to make it make sense grammatically

predicted YES

@CodeandSolder or "parody" if that doesn't count as one word

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@CodeandSolder I don't think a link is a word

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Renz if it isn't ", parody included" (with Isaac's comment above) gets the same result

predicted NO

@Renz I notice you have the largest position, but you haven't added a word yet. You could practically guarantee a NO resolution with a single word, as long as no one else adds another word after that.

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan I'm just watching :)

predicted NO

@MaoWhitley Do you have a word you want to add?

predicted NO

I'm adding "[self editing]" to the title just so that people who see it know what it is, and don't mistakenly think that the question that's currently in the title is guaranteed to be the question the market resolves based on. This won't affect the resolution criteria in any way.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

specifically

predicted NO

Okay, I bet on this market myself so I could edit the question. It's now a coherent question again. Two NO bettors could make it resolve NO by adding a timeframe like "today" and then locking it, but YES bettors could stop that by making the question no longer coherent first, and then potentially scratching it.

Kabuki

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@EzraSchott to be placed before the word "masks", I was hoping

@EzraSchott The intent was that each new word would be added to the end of the title. I will add punctuation as necessary to try to make it as coherent as possible, so this could still be salvaged by getting people to change it to something like "Will Smith College campus mandate masks, kabuki specifically?" or something like that.

@EzraSchott Fair enough, I updated the description to add it. I assumed it was implied, since each person only comments a single word without specifying where to put it. But maybe it would be interesting to do one where you can put a word anywhere you want in the title.