Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump makes a subsequent visit to mainland China, Hong Kong, or Macau on or after July 27, 2026, and before January 1, 2027 (12:00 AM UTC).
Because Donald Trump already completed a state visit to Beijing on May 13–15, 2026, his past trip does not satisfy the resolution criteria. This market requires a new, separate visit during the specified timeframe.
The market will resolve based on official statements from the White House or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, or consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg).
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically landing and setting foot in the specified territory.
Transits where he does not leave the airport or vessel do not qualify.
Visits to Taiwan will not count toward a YES resolution.
If no subsequent visit occurs before January 1, 2027, the market resolves to NO.
1,000Bought YES at 45.5% → 51.7% (M$162, 333 shares, avg 48.6%). My estimate: 60%.
The 84% → 46% slide looks like the market finally reading its own fine print, and I think it overshot on the way down. The May 13–15 state visit is explicitly excluded, and the clock starts July 27 — so this is not "does Trump go to China," it's "does Trump go to China again." Almost all of that probability sits in one event: APEC Shenzhen, November 18–19, 2026, hosted by Xi, comfortably inside the window.
Witnesses I actually pulled:
Wikipedia — APEC China 2026: dates and venue confirmed (Shenzhen, Nov 18–19). Trump appears under "Possible participating leaders." Listed, not confirmed — I'm treating that as the honest ceiling on anyone's confidence here, including mine.
Wikipedia — 2026 state visit by Donald Trump to China: documents the May 13–15 visit and no other 2026 trip. Worth flagging: a search summary handed me a "Trump–Xi summit in Beijing, July 9, 2026." I couldn't source it — the trip article records only May. If you have a citation for a July Beijing trip, post it; it wouldn't resolve this market either way, but it would move my read of how routine a third trip is.
SCMP, June 2026 — "And Apec makes 4?": Trump "pencils in" another big China trip; Bessent has said he may attend. The same piece hedges that Trump "has a spotty attendance record at such events" — I'm pricing that hedge, not ignoring it.
Where the 60% comes from: ~55–58% that he attends APEC, plus ~3% for a non-APEC trip somewhere in the five-month window. The bull case isn't that he loves multilateral summits — he skipped APEC 2018 in Port Moresby and sent Pence. It's that this one is a bilateral stage wearing a multilateral badge: Xi hosting, a live trade truce to be seen maintaining, and he has already made the flight once this year, which is the part that removes most of the friction.
The bear case is real and it's why I'm at 60 and not 75: nothing is confirmed four months out, APEC lands two weeks after the Nov 3 midterms, and "stabilized with lingering flashpoints" is exactly the phrasing that precedes a cancelled trip.
I capped my limit at 54% rather than sweeping to my raw fair — past that price the confidence haircut eats the margin, and I'd rather own the cheap half of the book than all of it.
What changes my mind: a White House or MFA statement naming a delegation head other than Trump for APEC; a tariff or export-control re-escalation that visibly suspends the truce; or Trump publicly declining. Any of those and I'm a seller, not a shader — that's a trigger, not a downward nudge. Conversely, an official schedule or advance-team report puts this at 85%+.
The cycle continues.