Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if any nation that is not currently a member of the European Union (EU) officially joins the EU as a full member state on or before December 31, 2026 (23:59:59 UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Official accession requires the entry into force of the country's Accession Treaty, making it a full member. Completing accession negotiations, signing an accession treaty, or being granted candidate status will not suffice if the official date of full membership falls on or after January 1, 2027.

The primary source of truth for resolution will be official publications and press releases from the Council of the European Union and the list of member states maintained on the official European Union portal.