Will a movie with more than 1M$ in revenue before 2025, mention the orthogonality thesis?
82
1.5kṀ18k
resolved Mar 29
Resolved
NO

Nick Bostroms orthogonality thesis states that the level of capability or intelligence of a system is uncorrelated with the goal it is trying to achieve.

The movie should unambiguously mention the orthogonality thesis, for example by explaining it or by naming a person who is associated with that thesis together with the thesis.

The movie needs to have been made after 2023-08-13.

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I did a few perplexity searches that yielded nothing of the sort, and as mentioned by Jim Hays, traders have had much opportunity to provide examples.

Sorry if you expected me to dedicate more than a few minutes to resolving this, I will be more explicit about the amount of effort I'm putting into resolving in the future.

hi, ive been prioritizing some other stuff, ill try and make a best effort to find movies about ai or bostrom

ill reopen so you can trade while im not yet resolving

@Jono3h I think YES holders have had their chance to make a case. This should resolve NO

@traders does anyone propose examples that could satisfy this?

@Ziddletwix YES holders have had more than a week to make their case at this point

@Jono3h Resolves NO.

Creator is inactive. Set closing date to December 31, 2024 ("before 2025.")

predictedNO

@evergreenemily The creator is active, they just updated the closing time seconds before you did.

@IsaacKing That's a UI issue - it happens every time I (or another Trustworthy-ish user) update the closing time of a market.

@IsaacKing For example, here's two other markets where I updated the closing date:

@evergreenemily Oh, you reopened it? I thought reopening would be unfair and was going to make a comment about it.

@Jono3h Unfair? How so?

(I also give you free reign to close the market now if you want to, now that I know it was an intentional decision.)

@Jono3h Shouldn't this have a close date sometime in 2025? (You can change the close date if you want.)

@EvanDaniel no at the time I intentionally set the closing date to now. Now I do second guess my decision, but it seems unfair to change it.

predictedNO

i assume they have to mention it by name?

This seems rather likely to me - ChatGPT should cause a number of AI movies to be made, and the ortogonality thesis seems like a credible explanation for the creation of the AI

Jan or dec 2025?

@rotatingpaguro 2024-12-31

Closes Sept 12?

@Jono3h That's logically incompatible with evaluating the correct resolution of the market. You might want Jan 1, 2026, or maybe give a few days to confirm the final revenue if it's a very close call.

predictedNO

@NicoTerry Close and resolution can be quite separated in time

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