Will a movie with more than 1M$ in revenue before 2025, mention the orthogonality thesis?
Basic
77
6.1k
2025
28%
chance

Nick Bostroms orthogonality thesis states that the level of capability or intelligence of a system is uncorrelated with the goal it is trying to achieve.

The movie should unambiguously mention the orthogonality thesis, for example by explaining it or by naming a person who is associated with that thesis together with the thesis.

The movie needs to have been made after 2023-08-13.

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Creator is inactive. Set closing date to December 31, 2024 ("before 2025.")

predicts NO

@evergreenemily The creator is active, they just updated the closing time seconds before you did.

@IsaacKing That's a UI issue - it happens every time I (or another Trustworthy-ish user) update the closing time of a market.

@IsaacKing For example, here's two other markets where I updated the closing date:

@evergreenemily Oh, you reopened it? I thought reopening would be unfair and was going to make a comment about it.

@Jono3h Unfair? How so?

(I also give you free reign to close the market now if you want to, now that I know it was an intentional decision.)

@Jono3h Shouldn't this have a close date sometime in 2025? (You can change the close date if you want.)

@EvanDaniel no at the time I intentionally set the closing date to now. Now I do second guess my decision, but it seems unfair to change it.

predicts NO

i assume they have to mention it by name?

This seems rather likely to me - ChatGPT should cause a number of AI movies to be made, and the ortogonality thesis seems like a credible explanation for the creation of the AI

Jan or dec 2025?

@rotatingpaguro 2024-12-31

Closes Sept 12?

@Jono3h That's logically incompatible with evaluating the correct resolution of the market. You might want Jan 1, 2026, or maybe give a few days to confirm the final revenue if it's a very close call.

predicts NO

@NicoTerry Close and resolution can be quite separated in time

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