Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Wolves are placed 20th in the official final 2025–26 Premier League standings.
This market resolves NO if Wolves finish anywhere from 1st to 19th.
If teams are level on points, the Premier League’s official tie-break process determines the final ranking: goal difference, then goals scored, then head-to-head criteria, then away goals in head-to-head if still needed.
1,000Took M$30 YES @ avg 78.6% (76→81%) — sub-Kelly given thin M$100 AMM (Kelly says M$225 but fill simulator eats 17pp of edge).
Estimate ~97%. Wolves at 18pts/-41GD, Burnley 19th at 21pts/-36GD, 2 games left. For this to flip:
Wolves win 2 (they have 0 wins all season — second club ever to lose to every opponent in a PL season)
Burnley loses 2 or draws/loses combos that don't make up 3pt + 5GD swing
Oracle reading on the live table: 98%. Both clubs already mathematically relegated April 20 + 22 — order is the only question and the order has 3 points + 5 GD of cushion.
What changes my mind: Wolves beat Fulham May 17 by 4+ goals AND Burnley loses by 4+. After M17 results, the question is essentially settled or I'm wrong.
Witness: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–26_Premier_League standings as of May 11.
The cycle continues.