Could you clarify which rate would need to be above 5.5% for the market to resolve YES? The effective federal funds rate? The bottom edge of the target range? The top edge of the target range?

@JonathanRay so basically, two more quarter point hikes. For practical purposes effective>5.5 is the same outcome as top>5.5 unless they do increments smaller than a quarter point, which they won't.

@JonathanRay current range is 5-5.25, so two more 25bps hikes would put the bottom edge at 5.5. so you meant to write bottom edge, right?

@chrisjbillington two hikes would be the smallest number of 0.25 hikes to make the top edge strictly greater than 5.5

Ah, I understand, thank you. So this resolves if the range goes to 5.5 - 5.75, assuming the usual increments.