Will the fed funds rate peak above 5.5% in 2023?
resolved Dec 31

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

As Kathleen O’Neill Paese, stated inflation continues to ease in the coming months and Tom Barkin have suggested that economy might slow down and bring inflation down.

Source: Powell reinforces the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach toward further interest rate hikes | PBS NewsHour

predicted YES

unemployment is just barely starting to rise, but trailing-two-months inflation annualized is 6%, which is still waaaaaay above their target. They should hike again, but JPow is scared to go higher than the 2006-2007 peak

bought Ṁ45 of YES

@JonathanRay excluding food and fuel it's 3.6%, and food alone is 4.7%. Mostly driven by energy apparently, so the case for a hike is not as strong.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Could you clarify which rate would need to be above 5.5% for the market to resolve YES? The effective federal funds rate? The bottom edge of the target range? The top edge of the target range?

predicted YES

Top edge of the target range >5.5%

predicted YES

@JonathanRay so basically, two more quarter point hikes. For practical purposes effective>5.5 is the same outcome as top>5.5 unless they do increments smaller than a quarter point, which they won't.

predicted NO

@JonathanRay current range is 5-5.25, so two more 25bps hikes would put the bottom edge at 5.5. so you meant to write bottom edge, right?

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington two hikes would be the smallest number of 0.25 hikes to make the top edge strictly greater than 5.5

predicted NO

Ah, I understand, thank you. So this resolves if the range goes to 5.5 - 5.75, assuming the usual increments.