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MANIFOLD
Will SPY rise to 392.5 or fall to 372.5 first?
7
Ṁ130Ṁ2.3k
resolved Jan 9
Resolved
YES

SPY is around 382.5 as of the close on 1/1. This contract stays open as long as SPY remains in the range (372.5, 392.5) When SPY exits the range, resolves YES if SPY is >=392.5, NO if SPY is <=372.5. The data source will be yahoo finance 30min candles, not including extended hours: https://yhoo.it/3i6zHu9

Jan 5, 12:43pm: Will SPY rise $10 or fall $10 first? → Will SPY rise to 392.5 or fall to 372.5 first?

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It crossed the upper boundary at 10:30 AM this morning

predictedYES

Per the description (“…contract stays open as long as SPY remains in the range (372.5, 392.5) When SPY exits the range, resolves YES if SPY is >=392.5…”) this market should be closed and resolved ‘yes.’

predictedYES

@BryanKurt Oh. Is there a way my over-the-line trades can be undone?

Observing that the market closes at the end of the year, I now guess that observing, on one's own, that the result should be YES is not an impediment to trading on the basis of that observation. So I bought 500 more YES, -> 98%.

Llooks like ‘yes’ to me

I just saw that that SPY > 392.5 for several hours earlier this morning. I bought 100 YES, 44% -> 76%. Is that cheating? I refrain from further purchases.

predictedYES

@GooglyEyes Correction: several hours -> more than an hour

predictedYES

@GooglyEyes past post wagers are allowed on manifold because they make the displayed probabilities more correct even if the creator hasn't got around to resolving it yet

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