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Imagine a shark comes, throws in M20,000, and makes the probability 0

* Whale, same fish

@XComhghall am I right in thinking that in that case the market would resolve to 69% and the whale would lose most of their 20,000?

@Fion Yeah those limit orders at 50% make it unexploitable

@JonathanRay It's possible to get the market to 1% and spend less than M$3,000, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be profitable to do so.

@a There were about 7,000 - 8,000 of limit orders at around 50%. It'd require the same amount to bring to under 31%. Without those, 2,000 would bring it to 0.0%.

Also I misunderstood the market. I thought that if PROB + 69% is less than 100%, it'd resolve to NO. Resolving to PROB + 69% is definitely not profitable for NO bets.

@XComhghall Limit orders don't fill if you bet against them for more than the trader's balance.

@a I am confused. Does 'the trader's balance' refer to the person who placed the limit orders? If there is a limit order of M8,000 at 50%, it doesn't fill under what conditions?

Acceleration is afraid to fade me nowadays