Resolves when the definitive study is brought to my attention. x% means x microcamcers. Yes if over 100.
1,000Eyeballing a lancet chart, 4% of cancers are attributed to alcohol, and 1 in 2 people get cancer in their lifetime, so 1 in 50 people gets alcohol-cancer in his lifetime.
Total global alcohol consumption is 6.2 liters per person over age of 15 per year, which works out to like 310 liters in a lifetime. So 15500 liters of alcohol is one cancer. A six pack of beer contains about 0.1 liters of alcohol. So a six pack would be about six microcancers. Probably biased downward because most of the alcohol is drunk by heavy drinkers who don’t live long enough to get all the cancers, and the 1 in 2 figure includes people who get multiple cancers.
Probably biased downward because most of the alcohol is drunk by heavy drinkers who don’t live long enough to get all the cancers
They will also drink less in total for the same reason, I think it is already taken into account by your calculus.
@dionisos the alcohol use is more uniform over the lifespan than the cancer, so dying early reduces the ratio of cancer to alcohol consumption. If someone would have got cancer at 60 but died of cirrhosis at 55, that guy is going to cause you to underestimate the contribution of alcohol to cancer.