Will over 25% of participants in the SMTM potato study who start with a BMI > 25 lose more that 20lbs over 4 weeks?

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On the 29th of April 2022, Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM) announced a study to investigate the effects of a potato only diet, where volunteers eat nothing but potatoes (and a small amount of oil and seasoning). Anecdotal evidence suggests that the all potato diet can cause huge amounts of easy, sustainable weight loss. This study aims to test these claims more rigorously. This study will be conducted online. SMTM write "the only prerequisite for signing up is being willing to eat nothing but potatoes for at least four weeks, and being willing to share your weight data with us." Participants will weigh themselves and enter this data into a spreadsheet. When enough data has been collected, SMTM will publish the results. This question will resolve according to the first analysis SMTM publish on their blog. May 10, 4:04pm: Full details of the study can be found here: https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/04/29/potato-diet-community-trial-sign-up-now-lol/ May 10, 6:07pm: Clarifications: (1) This question will resolve according to the percentage of the participants who lose over 20lbs having COMPLETED 4 weeks of the diet. (2) The population in question will be the first 150 participants who ATTEMPT the diet. Close date updated to 2022-07-11 12:00 pm

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Full List of Other Similar Markets: - Will over 25% of participants who start with a BMI > 25 lose more than 10lbs? https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/will-over-25-of-participants-in-the-c7c8ce595448 - Will over 25% of participants who start with a BMI > 30 lose more than 10lbs? https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/will-over-25-of-participants-in-the-664a17ef82fc - Will over 25% of participants who start with a BMI > 30 lose more than 20lbs? https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/will-over-25-of-participants-in-the-163d54309e43

I have created a new market, this one on whether people with BMI > 30 will lose over 10lbs. This can be found here: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/will-over-25-of-participants-in-the-664a17ef82fc

why has no one linked to the sister market: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/will-over-25-of-participants-in-the-163d54309e43

Feeling good about this diet and I am currently losing more than a 1lb a day so betting yes.

Substantially over 150 participants have signed up - we should get the data needed to resolve this market

predicted NO

I'm pretty optimistic about the potato diet in general and this study in particle. That said, losing 20 pounds over four weeks means losing one pound every 1.4 days, while most of the anecdotes of people who have done the potato diet so far have lost more like one pound every 3 days. If the threshold were more like 9 or 10 pounds then I would vote yes.

predicted NO

@Ian I don't think so - people just eat as much as they want, then stop. Full details can be found on their post here https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/04/29/potato-diet-community-trial-sign-up-now-lol/

predicted YES

Do they have to hit a certain caloric intake level?

I think I'd eat less if I was just eating taters

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