Will Manchester City win the Premier League?
42%
chance


Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm

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howtodowtle avatar
howtodowtleis predicting NO at 47%

Why is there no arbitrage happening between these two markets? (I did a lot of arbitrage myself already, so now I have too much of my total mana invested in all these Premier League markets. Right now I have 1000+ shares of YES in the lower market and 1800+ shares of NO in the higher one.😅)

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 47%

@howtodowtle fixed it lol. I still think that all these markets are not considering the possibility that City gets points deducted. So either the market that I signaled below is overvalued or all these markets at 47% are.

howtodowtle avatar
howtodowtleis predicting NO at 47%

@egroj I agree. Not sure what the right valuation is. But if the same outcome trades with a 10 % spread, I can guarantee at least one of the markets is off. ;P Will trade both down a little bit.

egroj avatar
JAAMbought Ṁ34 of YES

@howtodowtle there should also be arbitrage against this one:

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 48%

I think that this market is not correcting for the possibility of Manchester City losing points due to sanctions. @JonathanNankivell if they lose points in that manner and because of that Arsenal is determined to be the champion, would this market resolve NO?

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 48%

Arbitrage with these too: