Will Manchester City win the Premier League?
resolved May 24

Close date updated to 2023-05-31 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Resolves YES

[Admin] Resolving to YES

@JonathanNankivell I want to better understand what conditions are sufficient for this question being closed and resolved. The current point total is 85 for MC and 81 for Arsenal. If on May 20th, for example, Arsenal looses the game against Nottingham Forest, or MC wins the game against Chelsea, it will be impossible for Arsenal to catch up, and MC will effectively win the Premier League. In this scenario, will you close the market early and resolve it as YES?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

With every kick and every score,
City dominates the Premier's floor.
Their skill and speed, unmatched and sly,
With every game they reach for the sky.

predicted NO

Why is there no arbitrage happening between these two markets? (I did a lot of arbitrage myself already, so now I have too much of my total mana invested in all these Premier League markets. Right now I have 1000+ shares of YES in the lower market and 1800+ shares of NO in the higher one.😅)

predicted NO

@howtodowtle fixed it lol. I still think that all these markets are not considering the possibility that City gets points deducted. So either the market that I signaled below is overvalued or all these markets at 47% are.

predicted NO

@egroj I agree. Not sure what the right valuation is. But if the same outcome trades with a 10 % spread, I can guarantee at least one of the markets is off. ;P Will trade both down a little bit.

bought Ṁ34 of YES

@howtodowtle there should also be arbitrage against this one:

predicted NO

I think that this market is not correcting for the possibility of Manchester City losing points due to sanctions. @JonathanNankivell if they lose points in that manner and because of that Arsenal is determined to be the champion, would this market resolve NO?

predicted NO

Arbitrage with these too: