(Short fuse) Will the Conservatives win the Tiverton and Honiton by-election?
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102Ṁ570resolved Jun 24
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This election is scheduled to occur on the 23rd of June.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tiverton_and_Honiton_by-election
Jun 7, 6:06pm: The same, but for the Lib Dems: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/short-fuse-will-the-lib-dems-win-th
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/15/lib-dems-say-they-trail-only-narrowly-in-tiverton-and-honiton-race
Maybe still unlikely, but I think the market is underrating Conservative's chances here. "[Lib Dem] party officials put their chances in the Devon seat at no better than 50-50" (from story above). And Lib Dems internal polling has them a couple of points behind Conservatives.
"The east Devon constituency has been Conservative since its creation in 1997, and returned Mr Parish at the last election with an overwhelming majority of more than 24,000, making it on paper one of Boris Johnson’s safest seats in the country." https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Fneil-parish-tiverton-honiton-byelection-b2069092.html