(Short fuse) Will the Conservatives win the Tiverton and Honiton by-election?
8
194
Ṁ571Ṁ102
resolved Jun 24
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This election is scheduled to occur on the 23rd of June.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tiverton_and_Honiton_by-election
Jun 7, 6:06pm: The same, but for the Lib Dems: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/short-fuse-will-the-lib-dems-win-th
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ72 | |
2 | Ṁ12 | |
3 | Ṁ8 | |
4 | Ṁ1 | |
5 | Ṁ1 |
Sort by:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/15/lib-dems-say-they-trail-only-narrowly-in-tiverton-and-honiton-race
Maybe still unlikely, but I think the market is underrating Conservative's chances here. "[Lib Dem] party officials put their chances in the Devon seat at no better than 50-50" (from story above). And Lib Dems internal polling has them a couple of points behind Conservatives.
A real-money market is here: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.198663388
"The east Devon constituency has been Conservative since its creation in 1997, and returned Mr Parish at the last election with an overwhelming majority of more than 24,000, making it on paper one of Boris Johnson’s safest seats in the country." https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Fneil-parish-tiverton-honiton-byelection-b2069092.html
More related questions
Related questions
Will the polling gap between Labour and Conservative parties change in the six weeks following the budget?
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 160 seats at the next UK general election?
60% chance
Will the Conservative Party lose over half of their London Assembly seats in the 2024 local elections?
47% chance