(Short fuse) Will the Conservatives win the Tiverton and Honiton by-election?
8
194
102
resolved Jun 24
Resolved
NO
This election is scheduled to occur on the 23rd of June. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tiverton_and_Honiton_by-election Jun 7, 6:06pm: The same, but for the Lib Dems: https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/short-fuse-will-the-lib-dems-win-th
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bought Ṁ10 of YES
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/15/lib-dems-say-they-trail-only-narrowly-in-tiverton-and-honiton-race Maybe still unlikely, but I think the market is underrating Conservative's chances here. "[Lib Dem] party officials put their chances in the Devon seat at no better than 50-50" (from story above). And Lib Dems internal polling has them a couple of points behind Conservatives.
bought Ṁ15 of NO
A real-money market is here: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.198663388
predicted NO
Except it shows odd, so e.g. calculate 1/(average of 6.6 and 7.2) to get 14.5%
predicted NO
*odds
bought Ṁ20 of YES
"The east Devon constituency has been Conservative since its creation in 1997, and returned Mr Parish at the last election with an overwhelming majority of more than 24,000, making it on paper one of Boris Johnson’s safest seats in the country." https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Fneil-parish-tiverton-honiton-byelection-b2069092.html