Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if there is at least one official emergency alert or siren for rocket/missile fire ("Red Color" / "Tzeva Adom") or hostile aircraft/UAV infiltration triggered by the IDF Home Front Command (Pikud HaOref) anywhere within the territory covered by its alert system.

• Timeframe: July 30, 2026, from 00:00 IDT (Israel Daylight Time, UTC+3) to 23:59 IDT.

• Geographic Scope: Anywhere within the boundaries monitored by the IDF Home Front Command alert system, including sovereign Israel, the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem, and Israeli communities in the West Bank.

• Qualifying Alerts: Real-time sirens/push notifications for incoming rockets, missiles, mortars, or hostile UAVs. Planned nationwide or regional test drills do not count. Unplanned real-time alerts that are later declared false alarms (radar false positives) do count, provided they were officially broadcast.

• Verification Sources:

  • Official Israel National Emergency Portal: oref.org.il

  • Tzofar Alert Archive: tzofar.co.il

  • Real-time monitoring services such as Miklat Alerts or major Israeli news outlets (e.g., The Times of Israel, The Jerusalem Post).

If a qualifying alert is recorded by these sources within the timeframe, the market resolves to YES. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Background

Israel's Home Front Command operates a highly localized early-warning system to alert civilians of incoming projectiles and drone incursions. The system divides the country into approximately 1,700 distinct alert zones, ensuring that only residents in the direct line of threat receive sirens and instructions to seek shelter. Despite active defense systems and geopolitical negotiations, localized cross-border threats or drone incursions from various regional actors can trigger alerts at any time. Reliable open-source databases and official government portals maintain exact chronological records of every alert.