Conditional on Biden dropping out, will Trump be elected president?
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1kṀ16kresolved Nov 7
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This market attempts to determine whether Biden dropping out would result in Trump's chances improving or worsening.
This market resolves:
N/A if Biden is considered to be one of the two main presidential candidates on November 5, 2024
YES if Trump is elected President of the United States, and Biden is NOT considered one of the main candidates
NO if Trump is NOT elected President of the United States, and Biden is NOT considered one of the main candidates
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Aside from Biden being Democrats' best shot at fending off Trump, I think a last minute Biden drop out would signal Democrats really don't have their things together.