Conditional on Biden dropping out, will Trump be elected president?
Basic
49
5.0k
Nov 7
54%
chance

This market attempts to determine whether Biden dropping out would result in Trump's chances improving or worsening.

This market resolves:

  • N/A if Biden is considered to be one of the two main presidential candidates on November 5, 2024

  • YES if Trump is elected President of the United States, and Biden is NOT considered one of the main candidates

  • NO if Trump is NOT elected President of the United States, and Biden is NOT considered one of the main candidates

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Aside from Biden being Democrats' best shot at fending off Trump, I think a last minute Biden drop out would signal Democrats really don't have their things together.

Odds are correct here but too high for Biden.

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