Will Liz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022?
Will Liz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022?
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2.2kṀ66kresolved Dec 26
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This question resolves YES if Lizz Truss is Prime Minister of the UK on 25/12/2022 and NO in all other cases.
In his most recent post, Dominic Cummings predicts a 50% chance that she will be replaced before Christmas.
Oct 14, 11:17am: Will Lizz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022? → Will Liz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.