Will Liz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022?
resolved Dec 26

This question resolves YES if Lizz Truss is Prime Minister of the UK on 25/12/2022 and NO in all other cases.

In his most recent post, Dominic Cummings predicts a 50% chance that she will be replaced before Christmas.

Oct 14, 11:17am: Will Lizz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022? → Will Liz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022?

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bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

the lettuce won

bought Ṁ100 of NO

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-63309400 Liz Truss resigns as UK prime minister

predicted NO

"Leadership contest will take place within the next week" and "Truss says she will remain as prime minister until a successor has been chosen."

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@jack I'm going to hold off on resolution for now. I agree based on statements today that she won't be PM at Xmas, and that's why I've bet NO. However, resolution criteria do say 'PM on Xmas day' not 'resigns before Xmas'. Though it pains me (and locks up my money...) I think I have to leave the market open.

predicted NO

@JohnRoxton Yep, I agree, this is not certain yet. There is some small chance of interesting surprises during the process of getting a replacement.

bought Ṁ520 of NO

@JohnRoxton Why would that pain you? Markets staying open is not a bad thing.

predicted NO

@JiSK Despite nearly two decades of hardening my heart to the fate of my country in response to the blunders of our leaders, I do retain some small semblance of national feeling and thus would prefer to be certain that the human handgrenafe will not return.

predicted NO

@JohnRoxton You can be 97% certain of that

sold Ṁ136 of NO
bought Ṁ50 of YES

How long does Liz Truss have left? Last week I put the chance that she would be ousted before the next election at 90 per cent, but thought she had a 50 per cent chance of lasting until September of next year (the earliest she can be removed without some kind of rule change or via actions outside the Conservative party rule book).

Quite a lot has happened since then, and a number of you have asked what my current prediction is.

Nonetheless — and as I write this I am aware this may turn out to be one of the stupidest things I have ever written — I am dubious that she will be removed any time soon. Almost every Conservative MP I speak to is of the opinion that she has to go sooner rather than later, and that she will. But when you ask them how, they will then reveal some hare-brained scheme involving someone else taking political damage to actually facilitate the change. The left of the party is reluctant to oust Liz Truss for fear they will be tagged as the enemy within if they do and will be left in an even weaker and more perilous position than they are now. Many on the right of the party and in the European Research Group are sticking with Truss.

As such, it still feels to me that it is about as likely as it is not that Truss’s government will stagger on until the autumn of next year, when she can be got rid of without anyone in the parliamentary party having to assert themselves or get organised to do so.


Whoever that is. I will short every thing he ever writes, owns, bets on, thinks, or imagines.

It’s cute he “feels” she will last a year, but that’s not a realistic take.

Lowest approval rating of any person in the history of polling (only a slight exaggeration—lowest prime minister, for sure)

Zero narrative, zero charisma. Was as faithful to her agenda as to her husband. Will be remembered as the worst politician of an era that hasn’t exactly seen any great leaders.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/19/uk/suella-braverman-liz-truss-departure-gbr-intl/index.html Liz Truss plunged into deeper turmoil after Suella Braverman leaves as Britain’s Home Secretary

bought Ṁ25 of YES

She just got here. I don't think she's going to resign so soon.

bought Ṁ17 of YES

still just arbing, it's fascinating how much two extremely correlated markets are drifting.

predicted YES

@AlexL Yeah, surprising that whoever runs the arbitrage bot hasn't picked up on this pair

bought Ṁ85 of YES


The man can write.

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