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MANIFOLD
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin still alive, and will he resurface within the next 12 months
16
Ṁ1kṀ3.2k
resolved May 20
Resolved
NO

Never believe what the Kremlin says! And highly unlikely he would of willingly got on a plane with other prominent Wagner leaders!

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I mean, he's dead, but this user seems to doubt that, and keeping the market open and very low is a good answer to their doubts.

Market close date of Jan 1 2024 doesn't seem to correspond with the "next 12 months"

I don’t think he’s alive but I think the odds are more than 3% chance of him being alive.

@JohnSmithb9be the problem is that both wagner and Russia says he is dead. What motivation would wagner have to lie.

predictedYES

@josephahrens If he’s going into hiding? He could be smuggled out of the country while “””dead”””.

@JohnSmithb9be but then why would Russia claim he is dead. If he was going into hiding Russia would want to find him.

predictedYES

@josephahrens Russia could be trying to look strong and effective. Maybe Progozhin tricked the Russian government into thinking he’s dead and will do a dramatic reveal next week. I personally think it’s more likely than not Progozhin is dead, I just don’t think it’s 97% likely he’s dead.

@JohnSmithb9be fair I'm not betting because the question will most likely be n/a