Will Apple Inc. [$AAPL] close above $179.00 per share at close of trading on Friday, October 20th, 2023?
4pm EST on October 20th, 2023. (After Hours is ignored).
Yes: $179.00 & higher
No: $178.99 & lower
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If you take the values from last month, the data shapes as a Poisson distribution, so if you make the test that the stock value will be above $179 before Oct 20th, the probablity thrown is 42%. (Considering an average stock value of $176.97)
Another value that supports this decision is the recent tendency. It can be seen is a negative tendency, so makes it more logical to decide the value will be below $179.
Based on the average AAPL closing price since Oct 10, the mean= 179.294..., st dev = 0.425... Assuming a normal distribution, the z-score for this event is:
(179-179.294)/0.425 = -0.692
P(179>Z) = 0.75569
This says there's a 75.5% chance of the stock price being over 179.
Together with the stock price closing 10/16/23 with 178.82, it only needs an upside of 0.16% to hit 179 right now, and the stock price have been over 179 as of Oct 11-12 last week.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/apple-stock-quotes-company-news-and-chart-analysis/