Which of my 2024 health goals will I achieve?
5
322
560
Dec 31
99%
romanian deadlift >=320lb 1RM-equivalent at any point
99%
play soccer >=30 times for >=30 mins each
99%
chin-up >=260lb 1RM-equivalent at any point
99%
complete >=24 cardio sessions of >=10 mins each, excluding soccer
96%
squat >=260lb 1RM-equivalent at any point
93%
weightlifting >=90 days
78%
stretching >=48 times for >=5 mins each
73%
complete >=24 cardio sessions of >=30 mins each, excluding soccer
73%
bench press >=290lb 1RM-equivalent at any point
67%
take <=50mg adderall-equivalent on >=90% of weeks
57%
chin-up >=290lb 1RM-equivalent at any point
55%
be <=81kg at any point
41%
track food >=200 days
37%
weightlifting >=3 days per week on >=70% of weeks
36%
floss >=3 days per week on >=50% of weeks
18%
be <=79kg at any point
14%
track food >=25 days per month on >=9 months
Resolved
YES
bench press >=260lb 1RM-equivalent at any point
Resolved
YES
overhead press >=140lb 1RM-equivalent at any point
Resolved
YES
bent-over row >=200lb 1RM-equivalent at any point

health dashboard displaying lots of relevant weightlifting data: https://joel-becker.shinyapps.io/life-dashboard/

notes on the goals:

  • i haven't tracked food whatsoever for ~1.5 years

  • i have weightlifted >=3 times per week for the last 5 weeks of 2023 but mostly didn't achieve that over the past ~1.5 years

  • according to the old health dashboard, the lowest weight i've been in past couple of years is ~79.8lb.

  • "1RM-equivalent" will be calculated using the formula weight * (1 + (reps / 30)), not weight * (1 + (reps / 25)) as on the current dashboard.

  • bench press all-time 1RM-equivalent 252lb, past 30 days 224lb.

  • overhead press all-time 1RM-equivalent 139lb, past 30 days 101lb.

  • chin-up all-time 1RM-equivalent 265lb, past 30 days 229lb. (uses body weight + any additional attached weight.)

  • bent-over row (overhand or underhand) all-time 1RM-equivalent 202lb, past 30 days 167lb.

  • squat all-time 1RM-equivalent 246lb, past 30 days 195lb.

  • romanian deadlift all-time 1RM-equivalent 342lb, past 30 days 209lb.

  • did probably ~5 cardio sessions (rowing, running, swimming, etc., not hiking) excluding soccer in 2023.

  • played soccer probably ~15 times in 2023.

  • flossed >=3 days per week probably ~0 weeks in 2023.

  • "adderall-equivalent" to be defined exactly later, but it will probably take 40mg vyvanse or 150mg modafinil to be equivalent to 15mg adderall. i've taken <=50mg adderall-equivalent on probably ~0 weeks in 2023.

notes on the market:

  • i will be participating.

  • i might add more goals later.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

It seems to me somewhat problematic that you would buy NO shares for any of the events. If someone were more interested in mana than a particular outcome (not saying *you* are, just generally), they could force a NO resolution by simply not trying (or lying about having failed, or faking a failed proof, etc.).

Also, for those outcomes that you're betting YES on, will you provide some form of proof of a YES outcome (videos of lifts, at least; unsure of what would qualify as proof for the soccer and Adderall outcomes)?

@NBAP I agree that not trying is a thing I could do. The lying/faking thing is also possible, but significantly harder. I currently have a track record of 4 years of tracking this kind of thing; it feels extremely against my interest to fake data.

Proof would be "you can see that I did this on the linked dashboard." (There's a public github repo with the code, so you can not-verifiably-but-still-sorta see that the dashboard honestly reports inputted health data.)

More related questions